Does Political Trust Matter? A Meta-analysis on the Consequences of Trust

Does Political Trust Matter? A Meta-analysis on the Consequences of Trust

Accepted: 3 January 2024 | Daniel Devine
This paper conducts a systematic review and meta-analysis of 61 studies reporting 329 coefficients derived from over three and a half million observations globally to examine the consequences of political trust. The analysis reveals that trust is weakly to moderately related to outcomes such as voter turnout, vote choice, policy preferences, and compliance, but is unrelated to informal participation. The results are robust to various considerations, including measurement of trust, modeling strategy, region of study, publication bias, and study design. The review highlights significant geographical and methodological gaps, particularly the reliance on cross-sectional designs. The findings suggest that trust is importantly and robustly related to what people want from their political systems and how they interact with them. The paper provides a robust, systematic, and empirical foundation to advance research on political trust, emphasizing its importance in understanding political behavior and public policy.This paper conducts a systematic review and meta-analysis of 61 studies reporting 329 coefficients derived from over three and a half million observations globally to examine the consequences of political trust. The analysis reveals that trust is weakly to moderately related to outcomes such as voter turnout, vote choice, policy preferences, and compliance, but is unrelated to informal participation. The results are robust to various considerations, including measurement of trust, modeling strategy, region of study, publication bias, and study design. The review highlights significant geographical and methodological gaps, particularly the reliance on cross-sectional designs. The findings suggest that trust is importantly and robustly related to what people want from their political systems and how they interact with them. The paper provides a robust, systematic, and empirical foundation to advance research on political trust, emphasizing its importance in understanding political behavior and public policy.
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