Does the h index have predictive power?

Does the h index have predictive power?

December 4, 2007 | J. E. Hirsch*
The article by J. E. Hirsch explores the predictive power of the h-index compared to other bibliometric measures of scientific achievement. The h-index, defined as the number of papers with at least h citations each, is compared with total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count. Through empirical studies using the ISI Web of Science database, Hirsch finds that the h-index is superior in predicting future scientific achievement. Specifically, the h-index shows higher correlation coefficients (up to 0.91) in predicting future citations and self-prediction compared to other measures. The study also suggests that combining the h-index with total citations (with a negative weight) can further enhance its predictive power. Hirsch attributes the h-index's superiority to its ability to better account for co-authorship and individual contributions, reducing the distortion caused by multiple co-authored papers. The findings challenge recent studies that argue for the mean number of citations per paper as a superior indicator, highlighting the h-index's effectiveness in predicting future scientific impact.The article by J. E. Hirsch explores the predictive power of the h-index compared to other bibliometric measures of scientific achievement. The h-index, defined as the number of papers with at least h citations each, is compared with total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count. Through empirical studies using the ISI Web of Science database, Hirsch finds that the h-index is superior in predicting future scientific achievement. Specifically, the h-index shows higher correlation coefficients (up to 0.91) in predicting future citations and self-prediction compared to other measures. The study also suggests that combining the h-index with total citations (with a negative weight) can further enhance its predictive power. Hirsch attributes the h-index's superiority to its ability to better account for co-authorship and individual contributions, reducing the distortion caused by multiple co-authored papers. The findings challenge recent studies that argue for the mean number of citations per paper as a superior indicator, highlighting the h-index's effectiveness in predicting future scientific impact.
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