Dominant Designs and the Survival of Firms

Dominant Designs and the Survival of Firms

April 1991, Revised July 1992 | Fernando F. Suárez, James M. Utterback
The paper explores how the survival of firms is influenced by the evolution of technology, particularly through the emergence of a "dominant design." Dominant designs are technological configurations that become widely adopted and standardize production, leading to significant changes in industry competition and firm survival. The authors argue that the survival of firms is closely tied to the timing of their entry relative to the emergence of a dominant design. Firms entering an industry before a dominant design is established tend to have a higher survival rate compared to those entering after, as the latter face increased competition and barriers to entry. The paper tests this hypothesis using survival analysis on data from six industries: automobiles, typewriters, transistors, electronic calculators, television, and picture tubes. The results show that the emergence of a dominant design significantly affects firm survival, with pre-dominant design entrants having a higher survival rate. The study also highlights the role of factors such as collateral assets, industry regulation, and strategic maneuvering in shaping the survival of firms. The paper concludes that understanding the relationship between technology evolution and firm survival is crucial for strategic management and industry analysis. The findings support the idea that dominant designs play a key role in shaping industry structures and firm survival, and that further research is needed to refine the concept and explore its implications in different contexts.The paper explores how the survival of firms is influenced by the evolution of technology, particularly through the emergence of a "dominant design." Dominant designs are technological configurations that become widely adopted and standardize production, leading to significant changes in industry competition and firm survival. The authors argue that the survival of firms is closely tied to the timing of their entry relative to the emergence of a dominant design. Firms entering an industry before a dominant design is established tend to have a higher survival rate compared to those entering after, as the latter face increased competition and barriers to entry. The paper tests this hypothesis using survival analysis on data from six industries: automobiles, typewriters, transistors, electronic calculators, television, and picture tubes. The results show that the emergence of a dominant design significantly affects firm survival, with pre-dominant design entrants having a higher survival rate. The study also highlights the role of factors such as collateral assets, industry regulation, and strategic maneuvering in shaping the survival of firms. The paper concludes that understanding the relationship between technology evolution and firm survival is crucial for strategic management and industry analysis. The findings support the idea that dominant designs play a key role in shaping industry structures and firm survival, and that further research is needed to refine the concept and explore its implications in different contexts.
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