Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States*

Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States*

APRIL 1999 | EDWARD R. COOK, DAVID M. MEKO, DAVID W. STAHLE AND MALCOLM K. CLEAVELAND
The paper presents a detailed study of drought reconstructions for the continental United States using tree-ring data. The authors developed a 2° latitude × 3° longitude grid of summer drought reconstructions, covering the period from 1700 to 1978, based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). An automated grid-point regression method called "point-by-point regression" (PPR) was used to estimate the PDSI values at each grid point. The reconstructions were validated using PDSI data not used in the regression modeling, and the results showed that most grid-point estimates of drought passed the verification tests. The spatial patterns of drought in the United States were faithfully recorded in the reconstructions, even though they were based on annual tree-ring chronologies. The 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought was identified as the most severe drought event since 1700, and other regional droughts were also revealed through rotated principal component analysis. The reconstructions are available on a NOAA website and can be downloaded freely. The study highlights the importance of dendroclimatic techniques in understanding past climate variability and the potential for using these reconstructions to study the causes and impacts of drought.The paper presents a detailed study of drought reconstructions for the continental United States using tree-ring data. The authors developed a 2° latitude × 3° longitude grid of summer drought reconstructions, covering the period from 1700 to 1978, based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). An automated grid-point regression method called "point-by-point regression" (PPR) was used to estimate the PDSI values at each grid point. The reconstructions were validated using PDSI data not used in the regression modeling, and the results showed that most grid-point estimates of drought passed the verification tests. The spatial patterns of drought in the United States were faithfully recorded in the reconstructions, even though they were based on annual tree-ring chronologies. The 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought was identified as the most severe drought event since 1700, and other regional droughts were also revealed through rotated principal component analysis. The reconstructions are available on a NOAA website and can be downloaded freely. The study highlights the importance of dendroclimatic techniques in understanding past climate variability and the potential for using these reconstructions to study the causes and impacts of drought.
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Understanding Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States