The Dynamics of Crowd Disasters: An Empirical Study

The Dynamics of Crowd Disasters: An Empirical Study

12 Feb 2007 | Dirk Helbing, Anders Johansson, Habib Zein Al-Abideen
The paper "The Dynamics of Crowd Disasters: An Empirical Study" by Dirk Helbing, Anders Johansson, and Habib Zein Al-Abideen examines the dynamics of pedestrian crowds, particularly during crowd disasters. The authors analyze video recordings of the 2006 Hajj in Mina/Makkah, Saudi Arabia, to understand the transitions from laminar to stop-and-go and "turbulent" flows, which are crucial for understanding crowd panic and trampling accidents. They find that even at extremely high densities, pedestrian movements do not completely stop, leading to overcritical conditions. Two sudden transitions are identified: from laminar to stop-and-go flows, and from stop-and-go to "turbulent" flows, which can trigger trampling. The study introduces the concept of "crowd turbulence," characterized by random displacements and power-law scaling of displacements, similar to fluid turbulence. The authors propose a "pressure" metric, defined as the local pedestrian density times the local velocity variance, to quantify critical crowd conditions. This metric helps identify critical locations and times, allowing for early warning and preventive measures. Based on these findings, the authors recommend improvements to crowd management, such as changes to the Jamarat Bridge, which led to a safer Hajj in 2007. The study highlights the importance of empirical data and advanced video analysis in understanding and mitigating crowd disasters.The paper "The Dynamics of Crowd Disasters: An Empirical Study" by Dirk Helbing, Anders Johansson, and Habib Zein Al-Abideen examines the dynamics of pedestrian crowds, particularly during crowd disasters. The authors analyze video recordings of the 2006 Hajj in Mina/Makkah, Saudi Arabia, to understand the transitions from laminar to stop-and-go and "turbulent" flows, which are crucial for understanding crowd panic and trampling accidents. They find that even at extremely high densities, pedestrian movements do not completely stop, leading to overcritical conditions. Two sudden transitions are identified: from laminar to stop-and-go flows, and from stop-and-go to "turbulent" flows, which can trigger trampling. The study introduces the concept of "crowd turbulence," characterized by random displacements and power-law scaling of displacements, similar to fluid turbulence. The authors propose a "pressure" metric, defined as the local pedestrian density times the local velocity variance, to quantify critical crowd conditions. This metric helps identify critical locations and times, allowing for early warning and preventive measures. Based on these findings, the authors recommend improvements to crowd management, such as changes to the Jamarat Bridge, which led to a safer Hajj in 2007. The study highlights the importance of empirical data and advanced video analysis in understanding and mitigating crowd disasters.
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