May 2001 | Stephen Redding and Anthony J. Venables
This paper estimates a structural model of economic geography using cross-country data on per capita income, bilateral trade, and the relative price of manufacturing goods. Over 70% of the variation in per capita income is explained by the geography of access to markets and sources of supply of intermediate inputs. These results are robust to the inclusion of other geographical, social, and institutional characteristics. The estimated coefficients are consistent with plausible values for the structural parameters of the model. The paper finds quantitatively important effects of distance, access to the coast, and openness on levels of per capita income.
The study focuses on the role of geographical location in determining per capita income. It uses a fully-specified model of economic geography (Fujita, Krugman, and Venables, 1999) and cross-country data including per capita income, bilateral trade, and the relative price of manufacturing goods. The paper shows that geographical location affects per capita income through its influence on flows of goods, factors of production, and ideas. Two mechanisms are considered: the distance of countries from markets and the distance from countries that supply manufactured goods and provide capital equipment and intermediate goods.
The paper finds that access to the coast and openness yield predicted increases in per capita income of over 60% and 70% respectively, while halving a country's distance from all of its trade partners yields an increase of over 70%. The theoretical model implies that distance only matters for per capita income in so far as it affects a country's market access and supplier access. Using instrumental variables estimation, the paper tests and is unable to reject this identifying assumption. The results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, including measures of physical geography, variables that argue are ultimate determinants of social infrastructure, and other institutional, social, and political controls.
The paper uses a theoretical trade and geography model to derive three key relationships for empirical study. The first is a gravity-like relationship for bilateral trade flows between countries. The second is a zero profit condition for firms, which implicitly defines the maximum level of wages a representative firm in each country can afford to pay. The third is a price index, suggesting how the prices of manufactures should vary with supplier access. The paper finds that more than 70% of the cross-country variation in per capita income can be explained by the geography of access to markets and sources of supply. The results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, including measures of physical geography, variables that argue are ultimate determinants of social infrastructure, and other institutional, social, and political controls. The paper concludes that the effects of features of economic geography on per capita income are quantitatively important.This paper estimates a structural model of economic geography using cross-country data on per capita income, bilateral trade, and the relative price of manufacturing goods. Over 70% of the variation in per capita income is explained by the geography of access to markets and sources of supply of intermediate inputs. These results are robust to the inclusion of other geographical, social, and institutional characteristics. The estimated coefficients are consistent with plausible values for the structural parameters of the model. The paper finds quantitatively important effects of distance, access to the coast, and openness on levels of per capita income.
The study focuses on the role of geographical location in determining per capita income. It uses a fully-specified model of economic geography (Fujita, Krugman, and Venables, 1999) and cross-country data including per capita income, bilateral trade, and the relative price of manufacturing goods. The paper shows that geographical location affects per capita income through its influence on flows of goods, factors of production, and ideas. Two mechanisms are considered: the distance of countries from markets and the distance from countries that supply manufactured goods and provide capital equipment and intermediate goods.
The paper finds that access to the coast and openness yield predicted increases in per capita income of over 60% and 70% respectively, while halving a country's distance from all of its trade partners yields an increase of over 70%. The theoretical model implies that distance only matters for per capita income in so far as it affects a country's market access and supplier access. Using instrumental variables estimation, the paper tests and is unable to reject this identifying assumption. The results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, including measures of physical geography, variables that argue are ultimate determinants of social infrastructure, and other institutional, social, and political controls.
The paper uses a theoretical trade and geography model to derive three key relationships for empirical study. The first is a gravity-like relationship for bilateral trade flows between countries. The second is a zero profit condition for firms, which implicitly defines the maximum level of wages a representative firm in each country can afford to pay. The third is a price index, suggesting how the prices of manufactures should vary with supplier access. The paper finds that more than 70% of the cross-country variation in per capita income can be explained by the geography of access to markets and sources of supply. The results are robust to the inclusion of other variables, including measures of physical geography, variables that argue are ultimate determinants of social infrastructure, and other institutional, social, and political controls. The paper concludes that the effects of features of economic geography on per capita income are quantitatively important.