Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon

Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon

Sep., 1979 | David M. Grether and Charles R. Plott
Grether and Plott (1979) examine the preference reversal phenomenon, where individuals prefer one lottery over another but assign higher monetary values to the opposite lottery. This behavior contradicts traditional preference theory, which assumes consistency in preferences. The authors conducted experiments to test whether this phenomenon is consistent with economic theory or if it requires a new framework. In their experiments, participants were asked to choose between two lotteries: a "P bet" with a high probability of a small reward and a "$ bet" with a low probability of a large reward. After making their choice, they were asked to assign a monetary value to each lottery. The results showed that many participants preferred the P bet but valued the $ bet higher, indicating a preference reversal. The authors explore various theories to explain this phenomenon, including income effects, strategic responses, probability misjudgment, and information processing. However, none of these theories fully account for the observed behavior. The experiments suggest that preference reversals are not simply a result of expected utility theory but may reflect a different underlying principle of choice. The study concludes that the preference reversal phenomenon is not consistent with traditional economic theory. While the results are consistent with some psychological theories, they challenge the assumption that preferences are stable and rational. The authors argue that the phenomenon raises important questions about the applicability of economic theory to human behavior and the need for alternative models of choice. The findings suggest that economic theory may need to be revised to account for the complexity of human decision-making.Grether and Plott (1979) examine the preference reversal phenomenon, where individuals prefer one lottery over another but assign higher monetary values to the opposite lottery. This behavior contradicts traditional preference theory, which assumes consistency in preferences. The authors conducted experiments to test whether this phenomenon is consistent with economic theory or if it requires a new framework. In their experiments, participants were asked to choose between two lotteries: a "P bet" with a high probability of a small reward and a "$ bet" with a low probability of a large reward. After making their choice, they were asked to assign a monetary value to each lottery. The results showed that many participants preferred the P bet but valued the $ bet higher, indicating a preference reversal. The authors explore various theories to explain this phenomenon, including income effects, strategic responses, probability misjudgment, and information processing. However, none of these theories fully account for the observed behavior. The experiments suggest that preference reversals are not simply a result of expected utility theory but may reflect a different underlying principle of choice. The study concludes that the preference reversal phenomenon is not consistent with traditional economic theory. While the results are consistent with some psychological theories, they challenge the assumption that preferences are stable and rational. The authors argue that the phenomenon raises important questions about the applicability of economic theory to human behavior and the need for alternative models of choice. The findings suggest that economic theory may need to be revised to account for the complexity of human decision-making.
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Understanding Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon