Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality

Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality

2009 | Daniel J. Jacob, Darrell A. Winner
The article reviews the impact of climate change on air quality, focusing on ozone and particulate matter (PM). It highlights that air quality is highly sensitive to weather conditions, which are influenced by climate change. Recent studies have estimated these effects through correlations with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation models (GCMs). The future climate is expected to be more stagnant due to weaker global circulation and fewer mid-latitude cyclones, leading to increased surface ozone in polluted regions. Coupled GCM-CTM studies predict a 1–10 ppb increase in summertime surface ozone over the next few decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. Higher water vapor will decrease the ozone background, making pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect on PM is more complex and uncertain, with changes in precipitation frequency and mixing depth being important factors. GCM-CTM studies suggest a ±0.1–1 μg m⁻³ change in PM concentrations over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become a significant PM source. Future research should address GCMs' ability to simulate regional air pollution meteorology, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. The article also discusses the potential impact of climate change on mercury, particularly in boreal ecosystems. Overall, the combined effects of emissions changes and climate change will likely worsen ozone pollution, while the impact on PM is less certain but potentially significant.The article reviews the impact of climate change on air quality, focusing on ozone and particulate matter (PM). It highlights that air quality is highly sensitive to weather conditions, which are influenced by climate change. Recent studies have estimated these effects through correlations with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation models (GCMs). The future climate is expected to be more stagnant due to weaker global circulation and fewer mid-latitude cyclones, leading to increased surface ozone in polluted regions. Coupled GCM-CTM studies predict a 1–10 ppb increase in summertime surface ozone over the next few decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. Higher water vapor will decrease the ozone background, making pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect on PM is more complex and uncertain, with changes in precipitation frequency and mixing depth being important factors. GCM-CTM studies suggest a ±0.1–1 μg m⁻³ change in PM concentrations over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become a significant PM source. Future research should address GCMs' ability to simulate regional air pollution meteorology, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. The article also discusses the potential impact of climate change on mercury, particularly in boreal ecosystems. Overall, the combined effects of emissions changes and climate change will likely worsen ozone pollution, while the impact on PM is less certain but potentially significant.
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