Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries - Some Empirical Evidence

Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries - Some Empirical Evidence

March 17, 2003 | Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei and M. Ayhan Kose
This paper reviews empirical evidence on the effects of financial globalization on developing economies, focusing on three key questions: whether financial globalization promotes economic growth, its impact on macroeconomic volatility, and factors that can help harness its benefits. The paper highlights that while financial integration has increased significantly in recent decades, a small group of developing countries has benefited disproportionately from private capital flows from industrial to developing countries. Despite theoretical models suggesting various benefits, empirical evidence shows a weak causal relationship between financial integration and growth. There is some evidence of a threshold effect, where the positive impacts of financial globalization are more pronounced when countries have certain levels of absorptive capacity and good governance. Financial integration is also expected to reduce macroeconomic volatility, but evidence suggests that it has not fully achieved this potential benefit, and in some cases, increased vulnerability to crises. The paper concludes that financial integration should be approached cautiously, with good institutions and macroeconomic frameworks being crucial preconditions.This paper reviews empirical evidence on the effects of financial globalization on developing economies, focusing on three key questions: whether financial globalization promotes economic growth, its impact on macroeconomic volatility, and factors that can help harness its benefits. The paper highlights that while financial integration has increased significantly in recent decades, a small group of developing countries has benefited disproportionately from private capital flows from industrial to developing countries. Despite theoretical models suggesting various benefits, empirical evidence shows a weak causal relationship between financial integration and growth. There is some evidence of a threshold effect, where the positive impacts of financial globalization are more pronounced when countries have certain levels of absorptive capacity and good governance. Financial integration is also expected to reduce macroeconomic volatility, but evidence suggests that it has not fully achieved this potential benefit, and in some cases, increased vulnerability to crises. The paper concludes that financial integration should be approached cautiously, with good institutions and macroeconomic frameworks being crucial preconditions.
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