January 2024 | Jaden Kim, Augustus J. Panton, and Gregor Schwerhoff
The IMF Working Paper "Energy Security and The Green Transition" explores the interplay between energy security and the green transition, emphasizing the need to balance short-term energy security with long-term climate goals. The paper analyzes historical trends in energy security, focusing on the diversification of energy trade partners and political risks. It finds that the diversification of energy trade partners was the main factor influencing energy security dynamics over the last two decades. The paper also examines how the green transition, which aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, could impact energy security. It suggests that the green transition could have a net positive effect on energy security if investments are aligned to address new challenges posed by increased reliance on renewables.
The paper uses a model-based experiment to analyze how the green transition, underpinned by a globally coordinated carbon price floor arrangement, could affect energy security. It finds that while climate mitigation policies may reduce fossil fuel demand and increase market concentration, leading to higher energy security risks, increased renewable energy penetration can reduce energy import dependence and improve energy security. The paper also highlights new challenges to energy security arising from the use of renewables, including the need for investments in infrastructure compatible with the renewable energy and electric mobility era.
The paper concludes that the green transition brings new challenges to energy security, which will require strategic support for production capacities in various countries to facilitate import diversification. It also notes that the intermittency of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, poses a challenge for uninterrupted energy supply. Solutions such as energy storage and grid extensions are necessary to address this challenge. The paper emphasizes the importance of international coordination in the energy transition to ensure sufficient investment in green energy sources and to mitigate the risks associated with the transition.The IMF Working Paper "Energy Security and The Green Transition" explores the interplay between energy security and the green transition, emphasizing the need to balance short-term energy security with long-term climate goals. The paper analyzes historical trends in energy security, focusing on the diversification of energy trade partners and political risks. It finds that the diversification of energy trade partners was the main factor influencing energy security dynamics over the last two decades. The paper also examines how the green transition, which aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, could impact energy security. It suggests that the green transition could have a net positive effect on energy security if investments are aligned to address new challenges posed by increased reliance on renewables.
The paper uses a model-based experiment to analyze how the green transition, underpinned by a globally coordinated carbon price floor arrangement, could affect energy security. It finds that while climate mitigation policies may reduce fossil fuel demand and increase market concentration, leading to higher energy security risks, increased renewable energy penetration can reduce energy import dependence and improve energy security. The paper also highlights new challenges to energy security arising from the use of renewables, including the need for investments in infrastructure compatible with the renewable energy and electric mobility era.
The paper concludes that the green transition brings new challenges to energy security, which will require strategic support for production capacities in various countries to facilitate import diversification. It also notes that the intermittency of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, poses a challenge for uninterrupted energy supply. Solutions such as energy storage and grid extensions are necessary to address this challenge. The paper emphasizes the importance of international coordination in the energy transition to ensure sufficient investment in green energy sources and to mitigate the risks associated with the transition.