This article presents a comprehensive analysis of clinical trial success rates and related parameters, using a large dataset of 406,038 entries from January 1, 2000, to October 31, 2015. The authors, Chi Heem Wong, Kien Wei Siah, and Andrew W. Lo, develop an automated algorithm to trace drug development paths and compute success rates, completion rates, phase-transition probabilities, and trial durations. They find that the overall success rate for all drug development programs is 13.8%, higher than previously reported estimates. The success rates vary across therapeutic groups, with oncology having the lowest success rate at 11.4%. The use of biomarkers in patient selection significantly improves success rates, especially in oncology trials. The article also examines the trend in success rates over time, noting a decline from 2005 to 2013 followed by an increase after 2013, possibly due to increased use of biomarkers and medical breakthroughs. The authors conclude that their revised estimates will provide greater transparency and help stakeholders make more informed decisions.This article presents a comprehensive analysis of clinical trial success rates and related parameters, using a large dataset of 406,038 entries from January 1, 2000, to October 31, 2015. The authors, Chi Heem Wong, Kien Wei Siah, and Andrew W. Lo, develop an automated algorithm to trace drug development paths and compute success rates, completion rates, phase-transition probabilities, and trial durations. They find that the overall success rate for all drug development programs is 13.8%, higher than previously reported estimates. The success rates vary across therapeutic groups, with oncology having the lowest success rate at 11.4%. The use of biomarkers in patient selection significantly improves success rates, especially in oncology trials. The article also examines the trend in success rates over time, noting a decline from 2005 to 2013 followed by an increase after 2013, possibly due to increased use of biomarkers and medical breakthroughs. The authors conclude that their revised estimates will provide greater transparency and help stakeholders make more informed decisions.