Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate

2024 | Siham El Garroussi, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Christopher Barnard, Fredrik Wetterhall
This study quantifies the impact of climate change on the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. Using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 projections, the analysis explores how changes in temperature and precipitation will influence fire events compared to a baseline. The results indicate that southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. Central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts if global temperatures reach +2 °C. The increased probability of fire extremes, combined with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, will put significant strain on Europe's ability to cope with these events in the coming decades. The study highlights the need for adaptive management strategies and policy interventions to address the growing risk of extreme fires in Europe.This study quantifies the impact of climate change on the intensity and duration of extreme fires across Europe. Using a 30-year ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 projections, the analysis explores how changes in temperature and precipitation will influence fire events compared to a baseline. The results indicate that southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. Central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts if global temperatures reach +2 °C. The increased probability of fire extremes, combined with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, will put significant strain on Europe's ability to cope with these events in the coming decades. The study highlights the need for adaptive management strategies and policy interventions to address the growing risk of extreme fires in Europe.
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Understanding Europe faces up to tenfold increase in extreme fires in a warming climate