Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss

10 January 2024 | Alexander R. Gottlieb1,2,3* & Justin S. Mankin2,3,4
The study by Alexander R. Gottlieb and Justin S. Mankin investigates the impact of human-induced warming on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, particularly focusing on the rate, magnitude, and causes of this decline. Despite consistent warming trends observed at various scales, the lack of a clear pattern in snowpack trends across different observational data products has made it difficult to attribute human-forced snow losses. The authors use an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions to identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, with 31 of these trends confidently attributed to human influence. They find that snowpack is highly sensitive to temperature, with a nonlinear relationship where snow becomes more sensitive to warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed -8°C. This nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and suggests that more significant declines and water security risks are likely in the most populous basins. The study emphasizes that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable, even without clear detection in individual snow products, and will accelerate with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources unless substantial climate mitigation efforts are made.The study by Alexander R. Gottlieb and Justin S. Mankin investigates the impact of human-induced warming on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, particularly focusing on the rate, magnitude, and causes of this decline. Despite consistent warming trends observed at various scales, the lack of a clear pattern in snowpack trends across different observational data products has made it difficult to attribute human-forced snow losses. The authors use an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions to identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, with 31 of these trends confidently attributed to human influence. They find that snowpack is highly sensitive to temperature, with a nonlinear relationship where snow becomes more sensitive to warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed -8°C. This nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and suggests that more significant declines and water security risks are likely in the most populous basins. The study emphasizes that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributable, even without clear detection in individual snow products, and will accelerate with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources unless substantial climate mitigation efforts are made.
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