9 September 2022 | David I. Armstrong McKay, Arie Staal, Jesse F. Abrams, Ricarda Winkelmann, Boris Sackschewski, Sina Lori, Ingo Fetzer, Sarah E. Cornell, Johan Rockström, Timothy M. Lenton
A study highlights that exceeding 1.5°C of global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, leading to significant and irreversible impacts. Climate tipping points (CTPs) occur when parts of the climate system undergo self-perpetuating changes beyond a warming threshold, resulting in substantial Earth system impacts. The study reassesses nine global "core" tipping elements and seven regional "impact" tipping elements, identifying their temperature thresholds and potential impacts. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial levels is within the lower end of some CTP uncertainty ranges. Six CTPs are likely to occur within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C warming, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw. An additional CTP becomes likely at ~2.6°C of warming.
The study emphasizes the urgency of mitigating climate change, as even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not safe, as 1.5°C and above risks crossing multiple tipping points. Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently, the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming, and even with current policies, it could reach just below 2°C, which would lower tipping point risks somewhat but still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points. The study calls for improved understanding of CTPs, including expert elicitation, model intercomparison projects, and early warning systems leveraging deep learning and remotely sensed data. The study also highlights the importance of addressing climate tipping points to prevent dangerous levels of global warming and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.A study highlights that exceeding 1.5°C of global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, leading to significant and irreversible impacts. Climate tipping points (CTPs) occur when parts of the climate system undergo self-perpetuating changes beyond a warming threshold, resulting in substantial Earth system impacts. The study reassesses nine global "core" tipping elements and seven regional "impact" tipping elements, identifying their temperature thresholds and potential impacts. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial levels is within the lower end of some CTP uncertainty ranges. Six CTPs are likely to occur within the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C warming, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, and widespread abrupt permafrost thaw. An additional CTP becomes likely at ~2.6°C of warming.
The study emphasizes the urgency of mitigating climate change, as even the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not safe, as 1.5°C and above risks crossing multiple tipping points. Crossing these CTPs can generate positive feedbacks that increase the likelihood of crossing other CTPs. Currently, the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming, and even with current policies, it could reach just below 2°C, which would lower tipping point risks somewhat but still be dangerous as it could trigger multiple climate tipping points. The study calls for improved understanding of CTPs, including expert elicitation, model intercomparison projects, and early warning systems leveraging deep learning and remotely sensed data. The study also highlights the importance of addressing climate tipping points to prevent dangerous levels of global warming and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.