June 16, 2020 | Ramelli, Stefano ; Wagner, Alexander F
The paper "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19" by Stefano Ramelli and Alexander F. Wagner examines the market reactions to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its impact on firm value. The study is divided into three periods: Incubation (January 2-17), Outbreak (January 20-Feb 21), and Fever (February 24-March 20). Initially, internationally oriented firms, especially those more exposed to trade with China, underperformed. As the virus spread to Europe and the United States, corporate debt and cash holdings became important value drivers, even after the Fed intervened in the bond market. The content and tone of conference calls mirror this development over time. The results illustrate how anticipated real effects from the health crisis, a rare disaster, were amplified through financial channels. The paper contributes by providing novel causal evidence on the importance of trade and financial policies for firm value and by analyzing how markets react to the realization of a tail risk event.The paper "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19" by Stefano Ramelli and Alexander F. Wagner examines the market reactions to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its impact on firm value. The study is divided into three periods: Incubation (January 2-17), Outbreak (January 20-Feb 21), and Fever (February 24-March 20). Initially, internationally oriented firms, especially those more exposed to trade with China, underperformed. As the virus spread to Europe and the United States, corporate debt and cash holdings became important value drivers, even after the Fed intervened in the bond market. The content and tone of conference calls mirror this development over time. The results illustrate how anticipated real effects from the health crisis, a rare disaster, were amplified through financial channels. The paper contributes by providing novel causal evidence on the importance of trade and financial policies for firm value and by analyzing how markets react to the realization of a tail risk event.