This paper tests and confirms the basic tenants of lead user theory, which posits that users who anticipate high benefits from innovations and are ahead of the trend are more likely to develop commercially attractive innovations. The study uses a sample of kite surfers to analyze the relationship between the commercial attractiveness of innovations and the intensity of lead user characteristics. The results show that both components of the lead user definition—high expected benefits and being ahead of the trend—contribute independently to identifying commercially attractive innovations. The "ahead of the trend" component also predicts innovation likelihood due to its impact on the supply side of innovations. Additionally, the study finds that local resources, such as technical expertise and community-based resources, improve the ability to identify commercially attractive innovations under certain conditions. The findings have both theoretical and practical implications for product modification and development, emphasizing the importance of selectively identifying user innovations that can be commercialized.This paper tests and confirms the basic tenants of lead user theory, which posits that users who anticipate high benefits from innovations and are ahead of the trend are more likely to develop commercially attractive innovations. The study uses a sample of kite surfers to analyze the relationship between the commercial attractiveness of innovations and the intensity of lead user characteristics. The results show that both components of the lead user definition—high expected benefits and being ahead of the trend—contribute independently to identifying commercially attractive innovations. The "ahead of the trend" component also predicts innovation likelihood due to its impact on the supply side of innovations. Additionally, the study finds that local resources, such as technical expertise and community-based resources, improve the ability to identify commercially attractive innovations under certain conditions. The findings have both theoretical and practical implications for product modification and development, emphasizing the importance of selectively identifying user innovations that can be commercialized.