FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN OECD COUNTRIES: COMPOSITION AND MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS

FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS IN OECD COUNTRIES: COMPOSITION AND MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS

August 1996 | Alberto Alesina, Roberto Perotti
This paper examines how the composition of fiscal adjustments affects their likelihood of success (defined as long-term deficit reduction) and their macroeconomic consequences. It finds that fiscal adjustments relying primarily on spending cuts in transfers and government wages are more likely to succeed and are expansionary, while those relying mainly on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend to be reversed and are contractionary. The study analyzes a sample of 20 OECD countries from 1960 to 1994, focusing on periods of tight fiscal policy. It defines success as either a significant reduction in the cyclically adjusted primary deficit or a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio. The results show that successful adjustments are more likely to involve spending cuts rather than tax increases, and that these adjustments have more favorable macroeconomic effects, including higher GDP growth, lower unemployment, and improved competitiveness. The study also highlights the importance of the composition of fiscal adjustments, particularly the impact of government wage and employment cuts on unit labor costs and competitiveness. The findings suggest that the success of fiscal adjustments depends on their composition, with adjustments that target politically sensitive areas such as transfers and wages being more likely to succeed. The paper also discusses the role of credibility, wealth effects, and supply-side effects in determining the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal adjustments. Overall, the study provides evidence that the composition of fiscal adjustments plays a critical role in determining their success and macroeconomic effects.This paper examines how the composition of fiscal adjustments affects their likelihood of success (defined as long-term deficit reduction) and their macroeconomic consequences. It finds that fiscal adjustments relying primarily on spending cuts in transfers and government wages are more likely to succeed and are expansionary, while those relying mainly on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend to be reversed and are contractionary. The study analyzes a sample of 20 OECD countries from 1960 to 1994, focusing on periods of tight fiscal policy. It defines success as either a significant reduction in the cyclically adjusted primary deficit or a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio. The results show that successful adjustments are more likely to involve spending cuts rather than tax increases, and that these adjustments have more favorable macroeconomic effects, including higher GDP growth, lower unemployment, and improved competitiveness. The study also highlights the importance of the composition of fiscal adjustments, particularly the impact of government wage and employment cuts on unit labor costs and competitiveness. The findings suggest that the success of fiscal adjustments depends on their composition, with adjustments that target politically sensitive areas such as transfers and wages being more likely to succeed. The paper also discusses the role of credibility, wealth effects, and supply-side effects in determining the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal adjustments. Overall, the study provides evidence that the composition of fiscal adjustments plays a critical role in determining their success and macroeconomic effects.
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[slides and audio] Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries%3A Composition and Macroeconomic Effects