Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology

Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology

VOLUME 11 | CHARLES A. DOSWELL III, HAROLD E. BROOKS, AND ROBERT A. MADDOX
The paper presents an approach to forecasting flash floods by identifying and understanding the "ingredients" that lead to heavy precipitation. Heavy precipitation is characterized by sustained high rainfall rates, which are influenced by factors such as rapid air ascent, substantial water vapor content, and precipitation efficiency. The duration of an event is also crucial, depending on the speed of movement and the size of the system. The study emphasizes the importance of recognizing the meteorological processes that bring these ingredients together, rather than relying solely on statistical relationships. It discusses the role of deep, moist convection, which is typically associated with flash floods, and the factors that contribute to its development, such as buoyancy, moisture content, and environmental conditions. The paper also explores the characteristics of different storm types, including multicell convection, supercells, and squall lines, and how they can produce flash floods. Additionally, it highlights the significance of mesoscale and storm-scale processes in the evolution of convective systems and their impact on precipitation patterns. The authors provide case examples to illustrate the application of this methodology in operational forecasting and discuss the broader implications for flash flood forecasting.The paper presents an approach to forecasting flash floods by identifying and understanding the "ingredients" that lead to heavy precipitation. Heavy precipitation is characterized by sustained high rainfall rates, which are influenced by factors such as rapid air ascent, substantial water vapor content, and precipitation efficiency. The duration of an event is also crucial, depending on the speed of movement and the size of the system. The study emphasizes the importance of recognizing the meteorological processes that bring these ingredients together, rather than relying solely on statistical relationships. It discusses the role of deep, moist convection, which is typically associated with flash floods, and the factors that contribute to its development, such as buoyancy, moisture content, and environmental conditions. The paper also explores the characteristics of different storm types, including multicell convection, supercells, and squall lines, and how they can produce flash floods. Additionally, it highlights the significance of mesoscale and storm-scale processes in the evolution of convective systems and their impact on precipitation patterns. The authors provide case examples to illustrate the application of this methodology in operational forecasting and discuss the broader implications for flash flood forecasting.
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