Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

2014 | Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shinjiro Kanae, Sonia I. Seneviratne, John Handmer, Neville Nicholls, Pascal Peduzzi, Reinhard Mechler, Laurens M. Bouwer, Nigel Arnell, Katharine Mach, Robert Muir-Wood, G. Robert Brakenridge, Wolfgang Kron, Gerardo Benito, Yasushi Honda, Kiyoshi Takahashi and Boris Sherstyukov
The article provides a comprehensive overview of the changing flood risk driven by rainfall over the late 20th and early 21st centuries. It highlights that economic losses from floods have significantly increased due to the expanding exposure of assets at risk. While it has not been possible to attribute peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past decades, projected increases in heavy rainfall are expected to contribute to more frequent and intense local flooding. The article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new studies, focusing on seven regions: Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania, and Polar regions. It emphasizes the sensitivity of flood characteristics to detailed changes and the limited confidence in numerical projections of flood magnitude or frequency due to climate change. The article also discusses the factors influencing flood risk, including climate, terrestrial/hydrological systems, and socio-economic systems, and explores future projections of flood risk under different climate scenarios.The article provides a comprehensive overview of the changing flood risk driven by rainfall over the late 20th and early 21st centuries. It highlights that economic losses from floods have significantly increased due to the expanding exposure of assets at risk. While it has not been possible to attribute peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past decades, projected increases in heavy rainfall are expected to contribute to more frequent and intense local flooding. The article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new studies, focusing on seven regions: Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania, and Polar regions. It emphasizes the sensitivity of flood characteristics to detailed changes and the limited confidence in numerical projections of flood magnitude or frequency due to climate change. The article also discusses the factors influencing flood risk, including climate, terrestrial/hydrological systems, and socio-economic systems, and explores future projections of flood risk under different climate scenarios.
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