2014 | Porter, John Roy; Xie, Liyong; Challinor, Andrew J.; Cochrane, Kevern; Howden, S. Mark; Iqbal, Muhammed Mohsin; Lobell, David B.; Travasso, Maria Isabel
Climate change significantly affects food security and production systems, with observed negative impacts on crop and terrestrial food production in many regions. Climate trends have more often resulted in negative effects than positive ones, with some high-latitude regions showing positive trends. Climate extremes have led to rapid food and cereal price increases, indicating sensitivity of current markets to climate changes. Anthropogenic emissions have increased the likelihood of some climate extremes. Climate change affects the abundance and distribution of aquatic species and aquaculture production globally, with potential negative impacts on nutrition and food security in tropical developing countries, though benefits may exist in other regions. Crop yields are highly sensitive to extreme daytime temperatures above 30°C, with these sensitivities identified for various crops and regions. Temperature trends are important for determining climate change impacts on crop yields. Precipitation projections remain important but uncertain for assessing future impacts at smaller scales. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) has stimulatory effects on most crops, while elevated tropospheric ozone (O₃) has damaging effects. Interactions between CO₂ and O₃, temperature, water, and nitrogen are complex and difficult to predict. Climate change will enhance the distribution and competitiveness of weeds, while rising CO₂ may reduce herbicide effectiveness. Climate change's impact on disease pressure on food crops is uncertain, with evidence of changed pest and disease ranges but less certain changes in intensity. All aspects of food security are affected by climate change, including access, utilization, and price stability. Non-production elements of food security, such as nutritional quality, are negatively affected by elevated CO₂, though other climate factors may counteract this. Major crops like wheat, rice, and maize will be negatively impacted by local temperature increases of 2°C or more without adaptation. Projected impacts vary across crops and regions, with some projections showing yield gains and losses. After 2050, the risk of severe impacts increases. Climate change negatively affects crop production in low-latitude countries, while northern latitudes may see positive or negative effects. Climate change increases inter-annual variability in crop yields. Agronomic adaptation improves yields by about 15-18% of current yields, though effectiveness varies. Adaptation benefits are greater in temperate than tropical regions. Global temperature increases of 4°C or more, combined with rising food demand, pose large risks to food security. Climate change will increase global food prices by 2050, with projections ranging from 3% to 84%. Adaptation in fisheries, aquaculture, and livestock production can be strengthened through multi-level strategies. Key adaptations include policy and management for resilient ecosystems and early warning systems for extreme events. Adaptations for livestock focus on resource management and climate-adapted breeds. Potential adaptation options exist across all food system activities, but benefits from innovations in processing, packaging, transport, storage, and trade are insufficiently researched. Observational evidence is needed on the effectiveness of adaptations at all levels of theClimate change significantly affects food security and production systems, with observed negative impacts on crop and terrestrial food production in many regions. Climate trends have more often resulted in negative effects than positive ones, with some high-latitude regions showing positive trends. Climate extremes have led to rapid food and cereal price increases, indicating sensitivity of current markets to climate changes. Anthropogenic emissions have increased the likelihood of some climate extremes. Climate change affects the abundance and distribution of aquatic species and aquaculture production globally, with potential negative impacts on nutrition and food security in tropical developing countries, though benefits may exist in other regions. Crop yields are highly sensitive to extreme daytime temperatures above 30°C, with these sensitivities identified for various crops and regions. Temperature trends are important for determining climate change impacts on crop yields. Precipitation projections remain important but uncertain for assessing future impacts at smaller scales. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) has stimulatory effects on most crops, while elevated tropospheric ozone (O₃) has damaging effects. Interactions between CO₂ and O₃, temperature, water, and nitrogen are complex and difficult to predict. Climate change will enhance the distribution and competitiveness of weeds, while rising CO₂ may reduce herbicide effectiveness. Climate change's impact on disease pressure on food crops is uncertain, with evidence of changed pest and disease ranges but less certain changes in intensity. All aspects of food security are affected by climate change, including access, utilization, and price stability. Non-production elements of food security, such as nutritional quality, are negatively affected by elevated CO₂, though other climate factors may counteract this. Major crops like wheat, rice, and maize will be negatively impacted by local temperature increases of 2°C or more without adaptation. Projected impacts vary across crops and regions, with some projections showing yield gains and losses. After 2050, the risk of severe impacts increases. Climate change negatively affects crop production in low-latitude countries, while northern latitudes may see positive or negative effects. Climate change increases inter-annual variability in crop yields. Agronomic adaptation improves yields by about 15-18% of current yields, though effectiveness varies. Adaptation benefits are greater in temperate than tropical regions. Global temperature increases of 4°C or more, combined with rising food demand, pose large risks to food security. Climate change will increase global food prices by 2050, with projections ranging from 3% to 84%. Adaptation in fisheries, aquaculture, and livestock production can be strengthened through multi-level strategies. Key adaptations include policy and management for resilient ecosystems and early warning systems for extreme events. Adaptations for livestock focus on resource management and climate-adapted breeds. Potential adaptation options exist across all food system activities, but benefits from innovations in processing, packaging, transport, storage, and trade are insufficiently researched. Observational evidence is needed on the effectiveness of adaptations at all levels of the