Forecasting the Future: A Comprehensive Review of Time Series Prediction Techniques

Forecasting the Future: A Comprehensive Review of Time Series Prediction Techniques

2024 | Milind Kolambe, Dr.Sandhya Arora
This review paper explores the evolution of time series forecasting techniques, from classical methods to modern approaches. It discusses the challenges and future directions in the field, providing insights into emerging trends. Traditional forecasting methods often struggle with capturing complex patterns and dynamics in real-world data. The study evaluates cutting-edge models like LSTM networks and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for their ability to handle intricate temporal dependencies. The paper categorizes existing approaches, discusses their strengths and limitations, and highlights emerging trends. Key components of time series forecasting include data points collected over time, trends, seasonality, and noise. Various mathematical models and algorithms are used, such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and machine learning techniques. Time series forecasting is applied in finance, economics, weather prediction, and industrial processes to make informed decisions. The paper categorizes time series forecasting methods into traditional statistical approaches, modern machine learning techniques, deep learning approaches, and hybrid methods. Traditional methods include moving averages, seasonal decomposition, and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Machine learning approaches leverage regression, decision trees, support vector machines, and random forests. Deep learning approaches use RNNs, LSTMs, and Transformer models. Hybrid methods combine the strengths of different techniques to improve accuracy and robustness. Challenges in time series forecasting include data-related issues like missing values, noisy data, and non-stationary data, as well as model-related challenges such as overfitting, underfitting, and hyperparameter tuning. Temporal challenges involve handling seasonality, trend shifts, and dynamic patterns. Evaluation metrics for time series forecasting include accuracy metrics (MAE, RMSE), forecasting performance metrics (MAPE, forecast bias), and coverage probability. Future directions focus on integrating advanced machine learning techniques, enhancing interpretability, and handling big time series data. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of ongoing research and innovation in time series forecasting to address the evolving needs of various domains.This review paper explores the evolution of time series forecasting techniques, from classical methods to modern approaches. It discusses the challenges and future directions in the field, providing insights into emerging trends. Traditional forecasting methods often struggle with capturing complex patterns and dynamics in real-world data. The study evaluates cutting-edge models like LSTM networks and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for their ability to handle intricate temporal dependencies. The paper categorizes existing approaches, discusses their strengths and limitations, and highlights emerging trends. Key components of time series forecasting include data points collected over time, trends, seasonality, and noise. Various mathematical models and algorithms are used, such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and machine learning techniques. Time series forecasting is applied in finance, economics, weather prediction, and industrial processes to make informed decisions. The paper categorizes time series forecasting methods into traditional statistical approaches, modern machine learning techniques, deep learning approaches, and hybrid methods. Traditional methods include moving averages, seasonal decomposition, and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Machine learning approaches leverage regression, decision trees, support vector machines, and random forests. Deep learning approaches use RNNs, LSTMs, and Transformer models. Hybrid methods combine the strengths of different techniques to improve accuracy and robustness. Challenges in time series forecasting include data-related issues like missing values, noisy data, and non-stationary data, as well as model-related challenges such as overfitting, underfitting, and hyperparameter tuning. Temporal challenges involve handling seasonality, trend shifts, and dynamic patterns. Evaluation metrics for time series forecasting include accuracy metrics (MAE, RMSE), forecasting performance metrics (MAPE, forecast bias), and coverage probability. Future directions focus on integrating advanced machine learning techniques, enhancing interpretability, and handling big time series data. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of ongoing research and innovation in time series forecasting to address the evolving needs of various domains.
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[slides and audio] Forecasting the Future%3A A Comprehensive Review of Time Series Prediction Techniques