Forest aging limits future carbon sink in China

Forest aging limits future carbon sink in China

2024 | Yi Leng, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Minxuan Sun, Lei Zhu, Chao Yue, Jinfeng Chang, Yitong Yao, Yuan Zhang, Jiaxin Zhou, et al.
The study by Leng et al. (2024) examines the impact of forest aging on China's carbon sink capacity, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on forest ecosystems to achieve carbon neutrality. Using a process-based ecosystem model with explicit forest age cohorts, the researchers estimate that China's terrestrial carbon sink was 198 ± 54 Tg C yr⁻¹ in the 2010s, primarily contributed by middle-aged forests. However, due to forest aging and the slowdown of atmospheric CO₂ growth, the carbon sink is expected to decrease significantly by −1.1 ~ −0.35 Tg C yr⁻¹ until 2100. The study emphasizes the importance of considering forest age dynamics in policy-making to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal, suggesting that future reforestation and afforestation efforts will enhance the carbon sink by increasing forest area and rejuvenating forest demography. Despite the potential of young forests to sequester more carbon, the overall carbon sink will decline due to the aging of existing forests. The research underscores the need for stringent emission reductions in other sectors to complement the role of forest ecosystems in climate mitigation.The study by Leng et al. (2024) examines the impact of forest aging on China's carbon sink capacity, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on forest ecosystems to achieve carbon neutrality. Using a process-based ecosystem model with explicit forest age cohorts, the researchers estimate that China's terrestrial carbon sink was 198 ± 54 Tg C yr⁻¹ in the 2010s, primarily contributed by middle-aged forests. However, due to forest aging and the slowdown of atmospheric CO₂ growth, the carbon sink is expected to decrease significantly by −1.1 ~ −0.35 Tg C yr⁻¹ until 2100. The study emphasizes the importance of considering forest age dynamics in policy-making to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal, suggesting that future reforestation and afforestation efforts will enhance the carbon sink by increasing forest area and rejuvenating forest demography. Despite the potential of young forests to sequester more carbon, the overall carbon sink will decline due to the aging of existing forests. The research underscores the need for stringent emission reductions in other sectors to complement the role of forest ecosystems in climate mitigation.
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