Future climate risk from compound events

Future climate risk from compound events

2018 | Zscheischler, Jakob; Westra, Seth; Van Den Hurk, Bart J.J.M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Ward, Philip J.; Pitman, Andy; Aghakouchak, Amir; Bresch, David N.; Leonard, Michael; Wahl, Thomas; Zhang, Xuebin
This article discusses the increasing risk of compound events—extreme weather and climate events that result from the interaction of multiple drivers and hazards. It highlights the importance of understanding these events to improve climate risk projections and to better integrate climate science with impact modelling, engineering, and social sciences. The paper provides examples of compound events, such as the 2010 Russian heatwave and wildfires, and Hurricane Sandy and Harvey, which involved multiple interacting hazards. It argues that traditional risk assessment methods, which often consider only one driver or hazard at a time, may underestimate the risk of compound events. The paper introduces a new definition of compound weather/climate events as the combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. It emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift in climate impact analysis to account for the complex interactions between drivers and hazards. The paper also discusses the challenges of modelling compound events, including the need for higher resolution climate models and improved methods for bias correction. It concludes that a better understanding of compound events is crucial for improving risk management and resilience to climate extremes.This article discusses the increasing risk of compound events—extreme weather and climate events that result from the interaction of multiple drivers and hazards. It highlights the importance of understanding these events to improve climate risk projections and to better integrate climate science with impact modelling, engineering, and social sciences. The paper provides examples of compound events, such as the 2010 Russian heatwave and wildfires, and Hurricane Sandy and Harvey, which involved multiple interacting hazards. It argues that traditional risk assessment methods, which often consider only one driver or hazard at a time, may underestimate the risk of compound events. The paper introduces a new definition of compound weather/climate events as the combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. It emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift in climate impact analysis to account for the complex interactions between drivers and hazards. The paper also discusses the challenges of modelling compound events, including the need for higher resolution climate models and improved methods for bias correction. It concludes that a better understanding of compound events is crucial for improving risk management and resilience to climate extremes.
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[slides and audio] Future climate risk from compound events