The article by Brooks and Gelman generalizes the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations. The authors review methods of inference from simulations and develop convergence-monitoring summaries relevant to the purposes of the simulations. They recommend applying a battery of tests for mixing based on the comparison of inferences from individual sequences and from the mixture of sequences. The article also discusses multivariate analogues for assessing the convergence of multiple parameters simultaneously. Key aspects include:
1. **Generalization of Gelman and Rubin's Method**: The authors add graphical methods for tracking the approach to convergence, generalize the scale reduction factor to track measures of scale other than variance, and extend the method to multivariate summaries.
2. **Inference Given Convergence**: Effective convergence is reached when inferences for quantities of interest do not depend on the starting point of the simulations. This suggests monitoring convergence by comparing inferences from several independently sampled sequences with different starting points.
3. **Original Method by Gelman and Rubin**: The method involves running multiple chains in parallel, each with different starting points, and comparing the between-sequence variance and within-sequence variance to assess convergence.
4. **Iterated Graphical Approach**: An iterative graphical approach is proposed to monitor convergence by dividing the chains into batches and calculating the variance and within-sequence variance for each batch. This method provides a qualitative element to the diagnostic, giving a better understanding of how the chains are converging.
5. **General Univariate Comparisons**: The article defines a family of potential scale reduction factors (PSRFs) that avoid the assumption of normality and have the property that they approach 1 as convergence is approached. These include interval-based and moment-based measures.
6. **Multivariate Extensions**: The article discusses multivariate approaches to monitor convergence, including the maximum root statistic (MPSRF) and the comparison of determinants of pooled and within-chain covariance matrices.
7. **Examples**: The authors provide examples to illustrate the application of these methods, including a Weibull regression in censored survival analysis, a bivariate normal model with a nonidentified parameter, and a hierarchical pharmacokinetic model.
8. **Discussion**: The article emphasizes the importance of using a variety of diagnostics to ensure reliable convergence diagnosis and highlights the advantages of the MPSRF in higher dimensions.
Overall, the article provides a comprehensive framework for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations, offering both theoretical insights and practical guidance.The article by Brooks and Gelman generalizes the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations. The authors review methods of inference from simulations and develop convergence-monitoring summaries relevant to the purposes of the simulations. They recommend applying a battery of tests for mixing based on the comparison of inferences from individual sequences and from the mixture of sequences. The article also discusses multivariate analogues for assessing the convergence of multiple parameters simultaneously. Key aspects include:
1. **Generalization of Gelman and Rubin's Method**: The authors add graphical methods for tracking the approach to convergence, generalize the scale reduction factor to track measures of scale other than variance, and extend the method to multivariate summaries.
2. **Inference Given Convergence**: Effective convergence is reached when inferences for quantities of interest do not depend on the starting point of the simulations. This suggests monitoring convergence by comparing inferences from several independently sampled sequences with different starting points.
3. **Original Method by Gelman and Rubin**: The method involves running multiple chains in parallel, each with different starting points, and comparing the between-sequence variance and within-sequence variance to assess convergence.
4. **Iterated Graphical Approach**: An iterative graphical approach is proposed to monitor convergence by dividing the chains into batches and calculating the variance and within-sequence variance for each batch. This method provides a qualitative element to the diagnostic, giving a better understanding of how the chains are converging.
5. **General Univariate Comparisons**: The article defines a family of potential scale reduction factors (PSRFs) that avoid the assumption of normality and have the property that they approach 1 as convergence is approached. These include interval-based and moment-based measures.
6. **Multivariate Extensions**: The article discusses multivariate approaches to monitor convergence, including the maximum root statistic (MPSRF) and the comparison of determinants of pooled and within-chain covariance matrices.
7. **Examples**: The authors provide examples to illustrate the application of these methods, including a Weibull regression in censored survival analysis, a bivariate normal model with a nonidentified parameter, and a hierarchical pharmacokinetic model.
8. **Discussion**: The article emphasizes the importance of using a variety of diagnostics to ensure reliable convergence diagnosis and highlights the advantages of the MPSRF in higher dimensions.
Overall, the article provides a comprehensive framework for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations, offering both theoretical insights and practical guidance.