April 2009 | Volume 4 | Issue 4 | e5102 | Meg A. Krawchuk, Max A. Moritz, Marc-André Parisien, Jeff Van Dorn, Katharine Hayhoe
The study by Krawchuk et al. (2009) explores the current and future distribution of wildfire globally, using statistical models to quantify the environmental drivers of vegetation fires. The authors develop multivariate models that link fire activity with resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse resolution (100 km, over one decade). These models are then used to project future changes in global fire patterns under different climate scenarios simulated by a global climate model (GFDL CM2.1). The results highlight that the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions jointly determine fire-prone areas, and that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counterbalanced by decreases at other locations due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation. Despite this net balance, the models predict substantial changes in fire distribution across large portions of the globe, which could have significant impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The study emphasizes the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning.The study by Krawchuk et al. (2009) explores the current and future distribution of wildfire globally, using statistical models to quantify the environmental drivers of vegetation fires. The authors develop multivariate models that link fire activity with resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse resolution (100 km, over one decade). These models are then used to project future changes in global fire patterns under different climate scenarios simulated by a global climate model (GFDL CM2.1). The results highlight that the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions jointly determine fire-prone areas, and that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counterbalanced by decreases at other locations due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation. Despite this net balance, the models predict substantial changes in fire distribution across large portions of the globe, which could have significant impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The study emphasizes the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning.