Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO₂ emissions

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO₂ emissions

June 12, 2007 | Michael R. Raupach*, Gregg Marland*, Philippe Ciais§, Corinne Le Quér醆, Josep G. Canadell*, Gernot Klepper**, and Christopher B. Field**
Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes have accelerated significantly, with growth rates increasing from 1.1% per year (1990–1999) to over 3% per year (2000–2004). This growth rate since 2000 exceeded the most fossil-fuel-intensive IPCC emissions scenarios from the late 1990s. The increase is driven by the cessation of declining trends in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, combined with rising population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing carbon intensity of energy is observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. Emissions growth is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Developing and least-developed economies (accounting for 80% of the world's population) contributed 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and 23% of cumulative emissions since the 18th century. These results have implications for global equity. The Kaya identity expresses global CO₂ emissions as a product of four factors: population, GDP per capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. The analysis shows that the growth rate of emissions since 2000 was driven by increases in population and GDP per capita, and the cessation of declining trends in energy intensity and carbon intensity. In developed regions, energy intensity of GDP has decreased, indicating a decoupling of energy use from GDP growth. In developing regions, energy intensity has remained stable or increased. China's emissions have risen rapidly due to high economic growth and increased energy intensity. The carbon intensity of energy has remained relatively stable globally, with some regions showing slight increases. The regional distribution of emissions is similar to that of commercial primary energy consumption but differs from population distribution. Developing regions have higher population but lower emissions per capita compared to developed regions. The per-capita emissions and energy consumption vary widely across regions, with developed regions having much higher values. The global average carbon intensity of energy has increased slightly since 2002. The results highlight the need for long-term perspectives on emissions due to the long atmospheric residence time of CO₂, with implications for global equity and burden sharing in climate change responses.Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes have accelerated significantly, with growth rates increasing from 1.1% per year (1990–1999) to over 3% per year (2000–2004). This growth rate since 2000 exceeded the most fossil-fuel-intensive IPCC emissions scenarios from the late 1990s. The increase is driven by the cessation of declining trends in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, combined with rising population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing carbon intensity of energy is observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. Emissions growth is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Developing and least-developed economies (accounting for 80% of the world's population) contributed 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and 23% of cumulative emissions since the 18th century. These results have implications for global equity. The Kaya identity expresses global CO₂ emissions as a product of four factors: population, GDP per capita, energy intensity of GDP, and carbon intensity of energy. The analysis shows that the growth rate of emissions since 2000 was driven by increases in population and GDP per capita, and the cessation of declining trends in energy intensity and carbon intensity. In developed regions, energy intensity of GDP has decreased, indicating a decoupling of energy use from GDP growth. In developing regions, energy intensity has remained stable or increased. China's emissions have risen rapidly due to high economic growth and increased energy intensity. The carbon intensity of energy has remained relatively stable globally, with some regions showing slight increases. The regional distribution of emissions is similar to that of commercial primary energy consumption but differs from population distribution. Developing regions have higher population but lower emissions per capita compared to developed regions. The per-capita emissions and energy consumption vary widely across regions, with developed regions having much higher values. The global average carbon intensity of energy has increased slightly since 2002. The results highlight the need for long-term perspectives on emissions due to the long atmospheric residence time of CO₂, with implications for global equity and burden sharing in climate change responses.
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Understanding Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions