Global food security under climate change

Global food security under climate change

December 11, 2007 | Josef Schmidhuber and Francesco N. Tubiello
Climate change poses significant risks to global food security, affecting availability, stability, access, and utilization. While availability is the most commonly addressed dimension in studies, the impacts on the other three are less understood. Climate change is projected to increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 5 to 170 million by 2080, depending on socio-economic development scenarios. The effects on food stability are influenced by climate variability, which can lead to temporary or permanent loss of access to food. Access to food depends on purchasing power, real incomes, and food prices, while utilization involves food safety and quality. Climate change can affect food utilization by increasing the risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases. Agriculture is a key source of both food and income, and food security depends on the ability of populations to access sufficient food. National self-sufficiency is not necessary for food security. Climate change impacts food production through changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO₂ levels, which can affect crop yields and agricultural productivity. Higher CO₂ levels may increase crop yields but may not improve nutritional quality. Climate change is expected to shift suitable cropland, with significant losses in sub-Saharan Africa and gains in regions like the Russian Federation and Central Asia. Climate change also affects food prices, with moderate temperature increases expected to raise food prices, and more substantial increases after 2050. Socio-economic development is likely to have a larger impact on food security than climate change alone. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to become the most food-insecure region by 2080, largely due to socio-economic development paths. While elevated CO₂ may have some positive effects on crop yields, these are unlikely to significantly improve food security outcomes. Uncertainties remain in current assessments, including the effects of extreme weather events and changes in foodborne diseases. Current models focus mainly on food availability and access, neglecting food safety and vulnerability. Future assessments need to incorporate more comprehensive models and consider the impacts of climate change on all dimensions of food security. Policy measures that promote free trade, investment in infrastructure, and sustainable agricultural practices are essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security.Climate change poses significant risks to global food security, affecting availability, stability, access, and utilization. While availability is the most commonly addressed dimension in studies, the impacts on the other three are less understood. Climate change is projected to increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 5 to 170 million by 2080, depending on socio-economic development scenarios. The effects on food stability are influenced by climate variability, which can lead to temporary or permanent loss of access to food. Access to food depends on purchasing power, real incomes, and food prices, while utilization involves food safety and quality. Climate change can affect food utilization by increasing the risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases. Agriculture is a key source of both food and income, and food security depends on the ability of populations to access sufficient food. National self-sufficiency is not necessary for food security. Climate change impacts food production through changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO₂ levels, which can affect crop yields and agricultural productivity. Higher CO₂ levels may increase crop yields but may not improve nutritional quality. Climate change is expected to shift suitable cropland, with significant losses in sub-Saharan Africa and gains in regions like the Russian Federation and Central Asia. Climate change also affects food prices, with moderate temperature increases expected to raise food prices, and more substantial increases after 2050. Socio-economic development is likely to have a larger impact on food security than climate change alone. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to become the most food-insecure region by 2080, largely due to socio-economic development paths. While elevated CO₂ may have some positive effects on crop yields, these are unlikely to significantly improve food security outcomes. Uncertainties remain in current assessments, including the effects of extreme weather events and changes in foodborne diseases. Current models focus mainly on food availability and access, neglecting food safety and vulnerability. Future assessments need to incorporate more comprehensive models and consider the impacts of climate change on all dimensions of food security. Policy measures that promote free trade, investment in infrastructure, and sustainable agricultural practices are essential to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security.
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[slides and audio] Global food security under climate change