Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study

Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study

June 23, 2022 | Oliver J Watson*, Gregory Barnsley*, Jaspreet Toor, Alexandra B Hogan, Peter Winskill, Azra C Ghani
A mathematical model was used to estimate the global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination programs. The study found that vaccinations prevented approximately 14.4 million deaths from COVID-19 in 185 countries and territories between December 2020 and December 2021, based on reported deaths. When using excess mortality as an estimate of true pandemic deaths, this number increased to 19.8 million, representing a 63% reduction in total deaths. In COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries, vaccinations averted 41% of excess mortality, while in low-income countries, meeting the 20% vaccination target could have averted an additional 45% of deaths, and meeting the 40% target could have averted an additional 111% of deaths. The study highlights the significant impact of vaccination on reducing deaths, but also underscores the need for global vaccine equity to maximize the benefits. The results emphasize the importance of achieving vaccination targets to save more lives, particularly in low-income countries. The study used a mathematical model to fit transmission and vaccination data, and considered both direct and indirect effects of vaccination. The findings show that vaccination has substantially altered the course of the pandemic, saving millions of lives globally. However, inadequate access to vaccines in low-income countries has limited the impact in these regions, reinforcing the need for global vaccine equity and coverage. The study also notes the challenges in accurately estimating the impact of vaccination due to incomplete data on deaths and the need for improved surveillance systems. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of vaccination, revealing the substantial lives saved and the importance of equitable vaccine distribution.A mathematical model was used to estimate the global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination programs. The study found that vaccinations prevented approximately 14.4 million deaths from COVID-19 in 185 countries and territories between December 2020 and December 2021, based on reported deaths. When using excess mortality as an estimate of true pandemic deaths, this number increased to 19.8 million, representing a 63% reduction in total deaths. In COVAX Advance Market Commitment countries, vaccinations averted 41% of excess mortality, while in low-income countries, meeting the 20% vaccination target could have averted an additional 45% of deaths, and meeting the 40% target could have averted an additional 111% of deaths. The study highlights the significant impact of vaccination on reducing deaths, but also underscores the need for global vaccine equity to maximize the benefits. The results emphasize the importance of achieving vaccination targets to save more lives, particularly in low-income countries. The study used a mathematical model to fit transmission and vaccination data, and considered both direct and indirect effects of vaccination. The findings show that vaccination has substantially altered the course of the pandemic, saving millions of lives globally. However, inadequate access to vaccines in low-income countries has limited the impact in these regions, reinforcing the need for global vaccine equity and coverage. The study also notes the challenges in accurately estimating the impact of vaccination due to incomplete data on deaths and the need for improved surveillance systems. The results provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of vaccination, revealing the substantial lives saved and the importance of equitable vaccine distribution.
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[slides and audio] Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination%3A a mathematical modelling study