2024 | Zélie Stalhandske¹,², Carmen B. Steinmann¹,²,⁴, Simona Meiler¹,², Inga J. Sauer¹,³, Thomas Vogt³, David N. Bresch¹,² & Chahan M. Kropf¹,²
This study presents a framework for assessing multi-hazard risks globally, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and recovery assumptions. The framework combines single-hazard models driven by the same climate model realizations to ensure physical consistency. It is applied to river floods and tropical cyclones, which are the two hazards affecting the largest number of people and causing the highest damage to physical assets. The framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.
The study demonstrates how the framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study in Vietnam. It also shows how the framework can be used to assess the impacts of heat stress as an additional hazard. The results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. The framework is used to assess the impacts of TC and RF on population and economic assets, and to evaluate the risks under different climate conditions, including 1°C and 2°C warming levels.
The study highlights the importance of considering the interactions between hazards, including temporal sequence and co-occurrence of events, in risk assessments. It also emphasizes the need for a consistent approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, which accounts for the dynamic nature of vulnerabilities and the complex interactions between hazards. The framework allows for the analysis of probabilistic event sets under present and future climatic conditions, and can be extended to study risks from multiple hazards occurring simultaneously.
The study shows that the inclusion of recovery assumptions significantly affects the assessment of multi-hazard risks. It also demonstrates that the framework can be used to evaluate the impacts of different recovery times for asset damages from TC and RF. The results indicate that the role of common physical drivers may be increasing with higher temperatures, and that the framework provides a more accurate evaluation of risks by considering the interactions between hazards and the recovery processes.
The study also highlights the importance of considering the spatial and temporal scales of hazards in risk assessments. It shows that the framework can be used to assess the risks of multi-hazards on a global scale, and to identify regions that are particularly at risk. The study concludes that the framework provides a valuable tool for multi-hazard risk assessment, emphasizing the significance of a multi-hazard perspective in understanding the potential consequences of common physical drivers on climate risks.This study presents a framework for assessing multi-hazard risks globally, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and recovery assumptions. The framework combines single-hazard models driven by the same climate model realizations to ensure physical consistency. It is applied to river floods and tropical cyclones, which are the two hazards affecting the largest number of people and causing the highest damage to physical assets. The framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.
The study demonstrates how the framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study in Vietnam. It also shows how the framework can be used to assess the impacts of heat stress as an additional hazard. The results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. The framework is used to assess the impacts of TC and RF on population and economic assets, and to evaluate the risks under different climate conditions, including 1°C and 2°C warming levels.
The study highlights the importance of considering the interactions between hazards, including temporal sequence and co-occurrence of events, in risk assessments. It also emphasizes the need for a consistent approach to multi-hazard risk assessment, which accounts for the dynamic nature of vulnerabilities and the complex interactions between hazards. The framework allows for the analysis of probabilistic event sets under present and future climatic conditions, and can be extended to study risks from multiple hazards occurring simultaneously.
The study shows that the inclusion of recovery assumptions significantly affects the assessment of multi-hazard risks. It also demonstrates that the framework can be used to evaluate the impacts of different recovery times for asset damages from TC and RF. The results indicate that the role of common physical drivers may be increasing with higher temperatures, and that the framework provides a more accurate evaluation of risks by considering the interactions between hazards and the recovery processes.
The study also highlights the importance of considering the spatial and temporal scales of hazards in risk assessments. It shows that the framework can be used to assess the risks of multi-hazards on a global scale, and to identify regions that are particularly at risk. The study concludes that the framework provides a valuable tool for multi-hazard risk assessment, emphasizing the significance of a multi-hazard perspective in understanding the potential consequences of common physical drivers on climate risks.