Global sea level linked to global temperature

Global sea level linked to global temperature

December 22, 2009 | Martin Vermeer and Stefan Rahmstorf
The paper by Vermeer and Rahmstorf proposes a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations over decades to centuries with global mean temperature. This relationship is tested using synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and projected for the next century. When applied to observed data from 1880 to 2000, the correlation is over 0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990 to 2100. The study extends and improves upon the semiempirical method proposed by Rahmstorf, incorporating a rapid-response term to account for short-term sea-level changes. The dual model is tested on simulated and observed data, showing good agreement with both. The results suggest that emissions reductions early in the 21st century will be more effective in limiting sea-level rise than reductions later on. However, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the future ice-melt contribution, which could make the projected sea-level rise even higher.The paper by Vermeer and Rahmstorf proposes a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations over decades to centuries with global mean temperature. This relationship is tested using synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and projected for the next century. When applied to observed data from 1880 to 2000, the correlation is over 0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990 to 2100. The study extends and improves upon the semiempirical method proposed by Rahmstorf, incorporating a rapid-response term to account for short-term sea-level changes. The dual model is tested on simulated and observed data, showing good agreement with both. The results suggest that emissions reductions early in the 21st century will be more effective in limiting sea-level rise than reductions later on. However, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the future ice-melt contribution, which could make the projected sea-level rise even higher.
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[slides and audio] Global sea level linked to global temperature