A study published in Nature (DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07147-z) highlights that global supply chains amplify the economic costs of future extreme heat events. The research integrates climate, epidemiological, and economic models to estimate socioeconomic impacts of heat stress up to 2060. It finds that global GDP losses from heat stress increase exponentially, from 0.03–0.05 percentage points in 2030–2040 to 0.05–0.15 percentage points in 2050–2060. By 2060, global economic losses are projected to reach 0.6–4.6%, with health loss (37–45%), labor productivity loss (18–37%), and indirect loss (12–43%) contributing to the total. Small and medium-sized developing countries face disproportionate impacts, with South-Central Africa experiencing 2.1–4.0 times higher health loss than the global average, and West Africa and Southeast Asia experiencing 2.0–3.3 times higher labor productivity loss. Supply chain disruptions disproportionately affect manufacturing-heavy countries like China and the USA, leading to economic losses of 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
The study shows that heat stress impacts are not limited to low-latitude regions but extend globally through supply chains. For example, heat stress on African and South American suppliers can reduce beer and coffee consumption in Western Europe. The research also highlights that indirect losses from supply chain disruptions have not been fully analyzed, with previous studies either underestimating their impact or ignoring the amplifying effect of global trade systems on direct losses. As climate change intensifies, developing methods to quantify both direct and indirect impacts of heat stress is crucial for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.
The study uses a disaster footprint analytical framework integrating climate, epidemiological, and economic models to assess the impact of heat stress on socioeconomic systems up to 2060. It considers health loss (excess mortality due to extreme heatwaves), labor productivity loss (decreased daily labor productivity due to higher temperature and humidity), and indirect loss (production stagnation due to lack of supply or demand) across 141 regions and 65 sectors. The results show that global economic losses increase nonlinearly with time and heat stress, driven by increasing indirect losses. Under the SSP 585 scenario, global GDP loss in 2060 is 3.9%, with indirect losses accounting for 38% of the total. The study also highlights that different countries and sectors are sensitive to heat stress in different ways, with some regions experiencing more severe impacts than others.
The research underscores the importance of global cooperation and resilience in supply chains to mitigate the impacts of heat stress. It also emphasizesA study published in Nature (DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07147-z) highlights that global supply chains amplify the economic costs of future extreme heat events. The research integrates climate, epidemiological, and economic models to estimate socioeconomic impacts of heat stress up to 2060. It finds that global GDP losses from heat stress increase exponentially, from 0.03–0.05 percentage points in 2030–2040 to 0.05–0.15 percentage points in 2050–2060. By 2060, global economic losses are projected to reach 0.6–4.6%, with health loss (37–45%), labor productivity loss (18–37%), and indirect loss (12–43%) contributing to the total. Small and medium-sized developing countries face disproportionate impacts, with South-Central Africa experiencing 2.1–4.0 times higher health loss than the global average, and West Africa and Southeast Asia experiencing 2.0–3.3 times higher labor productivity loss. Supply chain disruptions disproportionately affect manufacturing-heavy countries like China and the USA, leading to economic losses of 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
The study shows that heat stress impacts are not limited to low-latitude regions but extend globally through supply chains. For example, heat stress on African and South American suppliers can reduce beer and coffee consumption in Western Europe. The research also highlights that indirect losses from supply chain disruptions have not been fully analyzed, with previous studies either underestimating their impact or ignoring the amplifying effect of global trade systems on direct losses. As climate change intensifies, developing methods to quantify both direct and indirect impacts of heat stress is crucial for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.
The study uses a disaster footprint analytical framework integrating climate, epidemiological, and economic models to assess the impact of heat stress on socioeconomic systems up to 2060. It considers health loss (excess mortality due to extreme heatwaves), labor productivity loss (decreased daily labor productivity due to higher temperature and humidity), and indirect loss (production stagnation due to lack of supply or demand) across 141 regions and 65 sectors. The results show that global economic losses increase nonlinearly with time and heat stress, driven by increasing indirect losses. Under the SSP 585 scenario, global GDP loss in 2060 is 3.9%, with indirect losses accounting for 38% of the total. The study also highlights that different countries and sectors are sensitive to heat stress in different ways, with some regions experiencing more severe impacts than others.
The research underscores the importance of global cooperation and resilience in supply chains to mitigate the impacts of heat stress. It also emphasizes