Global temperature change

Global temperature change

September 26, 2006 | James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David W. Lea, and Martin Medina-Elizade
Global temperature has risen by approximately 0.2°C per decade over the past 30 years, aligning with predictions from 1980s climate models. Warming is more pronounced in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, increasing the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those in 1983 and 1998. Paleoclimate data suggest current temperatures are as warm as during the Holocene maximum and within 1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. Global warming exceeding 1°C relative to 2000 would constitute "dangerous" climate change, affecting sea level and species extinction. Global temperature is a key metric for assessing climate change, with recent data showing warming trends consistent with climate models. The 2005 year was the warmest on record, with significant warming in the Arctic and high latitudes. Temperature anomalies show widespread warming, with the greatest increases over land and at high latitudes. The analysis confirms that global warming is real and not an artifact of urban measurements. Climate models predict warming scenarios, with the most realistic scenario (B) showing close agreement with observations. The 1983 and 1998 El Niños were particularly strong, and increased temperature differences between the Western and Eastern Pacific may increase the likelihood of future super El Niños. Global warming is expected to slow the tropical circulation, including the Walker cell, and may lead to increased temperature swings between La Niña and El Niño phases. Modern temperatures compare favorably with paleoclimate data, indicating current temperatures are near or at the highest levels in the Holocene. The Indian Ocean has warmed more than at any time in the Holocene, while the Eastern Pacific and Central Antarctica have warmed less. Global warming is likely to be at its highest level in the Holocene. Dangerous warming is defined by its impact on sea level and species extinction. Under a "business-as-usual" scenario, global warming could reach 2-3°C by 2100, leading to significant sea level rise and species extinction. An "alternative scenario" with reduced emissions could limit warming to less than 1°C, reducing the risk of dangerous climate change. However, continued emissions would make this scenario unfeasible. Global warming has significant impacts on ecosystems, with species migration and extinction already occurring due to climate change. The rate of warming is expected to increase, leading to severe impacts on species survival. The pattern of global warming shows high latitude amplification and greater warming over land than over ocean. Climate feedbacks, such as ice-albedo and GHG release, could exacerbate warming, making it more difficult to limit global warming. The AS scenario requires concerted efforts to reduce emissions and atmospheric GHGs, but continued BAU emissions would make this scenario unfeasible. The need for urgent action to reduce emissions is emphasized, as the long-term effects ofGlobal temperature has risen by approximately 0.2°C per decade over the past 30 years, aligning with predictions from 1980s climate models. Warming is more pronounced in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, increasing the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those in 1983 and 1998. Paleoclimate data suggest current temperatures are as warm as during the Holocene maximum and within 1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. Global warming exceeding 1°C relative to 2000 would constitute "dangerous" climate change, affecting sea level and species extinction. Global temperature is a key metric for assessing climate change, with recent data showing warming trends consistent with climate models. The 2005 year was the warmest on record, with significant warming in the Arctic and high latitudes. Temperature anomalies show widespread warming, with the greatest increases over land and at high latitudes. The analysis confirms that global warming is real and not an artifact of urban measurements. Climate models predict warming scenarios, with the most realistic scenario (B) showing close agreement with observations. The 1983 and 1998 El Niños were particularly strong, and increased temperature differences between the Western and Eastern Pacific may increase the likelihood of future super El Niños. Global warming is expected to slow the tropical circulation, including the Walker cell, and may lead to increased temperature swings between La Niña and El Niño phases. Modern temperatures compare favorably with paleoclimate data, indicating current temperatures are near or at the highest levels in the Holocene. The Indian Ocean has warmed more than at any time in the Holocene, while the Eastern Pacific and Central Antarctica have warmed less. Global warming is likely to be at its highest level in the Holocene. Dangerous warming is defined by its impact on sea level and species extinction. Under a "business-as-usual" scenario, global warming could reach 2-3°C by 2100, leading to significant sea level rise and species extinction. An "alternative scenario" with reduced emissions could limit warming to less than 1°C, reducing the risk of dangerous climate change. However, continued emissions would make this scenario unfeasible. Global warming has significant impacts on ecosystems, with species migration and extinction already occurring due to climate change. The rate of warming is expected to increase, leading to severe impacts on species survival. The pattern of global warming shows high latitude amplification and greater warming over land than over ocean. Climate feedbacks, such as ice-albedo and GHG release, could exacerbate warming, making it more difficult to limit global warming. The AS scenario requires concerted efforts to reduce emissions and atmospheric GHGs, but continued BAU emissions would make this scenario unfeasible. The need for urgent action to reduce emissions is emphasized, as the long-term effects of
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Understanding Global temperature change