Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

21 February 2008 | Kate E. Jones, Nikkita G. Patel, Marc A. Levy, Adam Storeygard, Deborah Balk, John L. Gittleman & Peter Daszak
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have significantly impacted global health and economies. A database of 335 EID events from 1940 to 2004 shows a rising trend, with the peak in the 1980s coinciding with the HIV pandemic. Most EIDs are zoonoses, with 71.8% originating in wildlife. Bacterial and rickettsial pathogens account for 54.3% of EID events, highlighting the growing threat of drug-resistant microbes. The study reveals that EID events are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors, and highlights the need for better allocation of resources to identify emerging disease 'hotspots'. The majority of scientific and surveillance efforts are focused on developed countries, where EIDs are less likely to originate. The study also shows that EID events are more concentrated in higher latitudes, but there is a risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne diseases emerging in lower latitudes with low reporting effort. The findings suggest that global resources for disease surveillance are poorly allocated, and that 'smart surveillance' in lower latitudes is needed. The study emphasizes the importance of monitoring wildlife for new, potentially zoonotic pathogens and reducing anthropogenic activity to prevent future zoonotic disease emergence. The analysis provides a basis for developing predictive models for emerging disease hotspots and highlights the need for improved global health monitoring.Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have significantly impacted global health and economies. A database of 335 EID events from 1940 to 2004 shows a rising trend, with the peak in the 1980s coinciding with the HIV pandemic. Most EIDs are zoonoses, with 71.8% originating in wildlife. Bacterial and rickettsial pathogens account for 54.3% of EID events, highlighting the growing threat of drug-resistant microbes. The study reveals that EID events are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors, and highlights the need for better allocation of resources to identify emerging disease 'hotspots'. The majority of scientific and surveillance efforts are focused on developed countries, where EIDs are less likely to originate. The study also shows that EID events are more concentrated in higher latitudes, but there is a risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne diseases emerging in lower latitudes with low reporting effort. The findings suggest that global resources for disease surveillance are poorly allocated, and that 'smart surveillance' in lower latitudes is needed. The study emphasizes the importance of monitoring wildlife for new, potentially zoonotic pathogens and reducing anthropogenic activity to prevent future zoonotic disease emergence. The analysis provides a basis for developing predictive models for emerging disease hotspots and highlights the need for improved global health monitoring.
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