Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario

June 16, 2000 | James Hansen*, Makiko Sato**, Reto Ruedy*, Andrew Lacis*, and Valdar Oinas*§
The article by James Hansen and colleagues presents an alternative scenario to the commonly accepted view that global warming will continue or accelerate in the twenty-first century. They argue that recent rapid warming is primarily driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), rather than CO2 and aerosols, which have partially offsetting effects. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade, and if sources of CH4 and ozone (O3) precursors are reduced, the climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs could be near zero over the next 50 years. Combining this reduction with a decrease in black carbon emissions and a plausible slowdown in CO2 emissions could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the risk of dramatic climate change. This focus on air pollution, particularly aerosols and tropospheric ozone, has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. The authors emphasize the importance of long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties to assess ongoing and future climate change. They propose a scenario for the next 50 years that aims to add little or no forcing, focusing on reducing non-CO2 GHGs and black carbon emissions. This strategy, they argue, is more practical for slowing global warming than often assumed, and it aligns with economic growth and technological advancements.The article by James Hansen and colleagues presents an alternative scenario to the commonly accepted view that global warming will continue or accelerate in the twenty-first century. They argue that recent rapid warming is primarily driven by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), rather than CO2 and aerosols, which have partially offsetting effects. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade, and if sources of CH4 and ozone (O3) precursors are reduced, the climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs could be near zero over the next 50 years. Combining this reduction with a decrease in black carbon emissions and a plausible slowdown in CO2 emissions could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the risk of dramatic climate change. This focus on air pollution, particularly aerosols and tropospheric ozone, has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. The authors emphasize the importance of long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties to assess ongoing and future climate change. They propose a scenario for the next 50 years that aims to add little or no forcing, focusing on reducing non-CO2 GHGs and black carbon emissions. This strategy, they argue, is more practical for slowing global warming than often assumed, and it aligns with economic growth and technological advancements.
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