15 FEBRUARY 2010 | SHANG-PING XIE, CLARA DESER, GABRIEL A.VECCHI, JIAN MA, HAIYAN TENG, ANDREW T. WITTENBERG
This study investigates the spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario A1B using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a nearly uniform increase in GHG emissions, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. The tropical Pacific shows a conspicuous maximum in SST warming along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics, associated with westerly wind anomalies and intensified southeast trade winds, respectively. The northern subtropics generally experience greater warming than the southern subtropics, reflecting asymmetries in trade wind changes. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, surface wind anomalies are easterly, reducing SST warming in the east, indicative of Bjerknes feedback. In the midlatitudes, ocean circulation changes generate narrow banded structures in SST warming, positively correlated with ocean heat transport changes in the northern extratropics. The study also examines the relationship between SST patterns and precipitation changes, finding that increased precipitation corresponds with local maxima in SST warming. The findings highlight the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change, an effect often overlooked in discussions of precipitation response to global warming. Implications for tropical cyclone behavior are discussed, emphasizing the need for further research on pattern formation mechanisms.This study investigates the spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario A1B using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Despite a nearly uniform increase in GHG emissions, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. The tropical Pacific shows a conspicuous maximum in SST warming along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics, associated with westerly wind anomalies and intensified southeast trade winds, respectively. The northern subtropics generally experience greater warming than the southern subtropics, reflecting asymmetries in trade wind changes. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, surface wind anomalies are easterly, reducing SST warming in the east, indicative of Bjerknes feedback. In the midlatitudes, ocean circulation changes generate narrow banded structures in SST warming, positively correlated with ocean heat transport changes in the northern extratropics. The study also examines the relationship between SST patterns and precipitation changes, finding that increased precipitation corresponds with local maxima in SST warming. The findings highlight the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change, an effect often overlooked in discussions of precipitation response to global warming. Implications for tropical cyclone behavior are discussed, emphasizing the need for further research on pattern formation mechanisms.