15 FEBRUARY 2010 | SHANG-PING XIE, CLARA DESER, GABRIEL A. VECCHI, JIAN MA, HAIYAN TENG, ANDREW T. WITTENBERG
This study investigates spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics using ensemble simulations under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Despite uniform greenhouse gas increases, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional SST warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming, with a maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics, linked to wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Northern subtropical warming is greater than southern, consistent with trade wind asymmetries. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, easterly winds and a shoaling thermocline reduce warming, indicative of Bjerknes feedback. Midlatitude SST warming shows narrow banded structures, negatively correlated with tropical wind speed changes and positively correlated with ocean heat transport in the northern extratropics. A diagnostic method based on the ocean mixed layer heat budget is developed to study SST pattern formation.
Tropical precipitation changes are positively correlated with SST warming deviations from the tropical mean. The equatorial Pacific SST maximum anchors a band of pronounced rainfall increase. The gross moist instability follows closely relative SST change as equatorial wave adjustments flatten upper-tropospheric warming. Comparisons with atmospheric simulations show the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change, an effect overlooked in current precipitation response discussions. Implications for tropical cyclones are discussed.
The study identifies major SST, precipitation, surface wind, and ocean circulation patterns in global warming simulations. The CM2.1 model shows substantial spatial variations in SST change, with ocean–atmosphere interactions important for pattern formation. SST patterns strongly control precipitation spatial variations. The study highlights important processes for pattern formation, leaving detailed analyses for future studies.
The CM2.1 model shows an equatorial SST warming peak due to meridional variations in the Newtonian cooling coefficient. The equatorial peak in SST warming is due to the mean evaporation pattern, determined by SST, wind speed, and relative humidity. The northern subtropical SST warming is greater than the southern, with wind effects dominating. The equatorial Pacific SST warming features a broad maximum in the central basin, with westerly wind anomalies deepening the thermocline and warming the eastern ocean. The evaporative damping effect transforms an eastward-decreasing ocean heat transport into a nearly zonal-uniform warming pattern.
In the equatorial Indian Ocean, SST warming is nearly zonally uniform, with reduced warming in the east. The sharp SST gradients force precipitation changes and drive south-easterly wind anomalies. The patterns indicate Bjerknes feedback and resemble the Indian Ocean dipole. The IOD is a major climate variability mode, with SST warming patterns developing during the Sumatra upwelling season. The Southern Ocean cooling is propagated equatorward via WES feedback, important for extratropical–tropical teleconnections.
In the North Atlantic, SST warming features northeast–southwest banded structures,This study investigates spatial variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall changes over the tropics using ensemble simulations under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario with coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Despite uniform greenhouse gas increases, pronounced patterns emerge in both SST and precipitation. Regional SST warming can be as large as the tropical-mean warming, with a maximum along the equator and a minimum in the southeast subtropics, linked to wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Northern subtropical warming is greater than southern, consistent with trade wind asymmetries. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, easterly winds and a shoaling thermocline reduce warming, indicative of Bjerknes feedback. Midlatitude SST warming shows narrow banded structures, negatively correlated with tropical wind speed changes and positively correlated with ocean heat transport in the northern extratropics. A diagnostic method based on the ocean mixed layer heat budget is developed to study SST pattern formation.
Tropical precipitation changes are positively correlated with SST warming deviations from the tropical mean. The equatorial Pacific SST maximum anchors a band of pronounced rainfall increase. The gross moist instability follows closely relative SST change as equatorial wave adjustments flatten upper-tropospheric warming. Comparisons with atmospheric simulations show the importance of SST patterns for rainfall change, an effect overlooked in current precipitation response discussions. Implications for tropical cyclones are discussed.
The study identifies major SST, precipitation, surface wind, and ocean circulation patterns in global warming simulations. The CM2.1 model shows substantial spatial variations in SST change, with ocean–atmosphere interactions important for pattern formation. SST patterns strongly control precipitation spatial variations. The study highlights important processes for pattern formation, leaving detailed analyses for future studies.
The CM2.1 model shows an equatorial SST warming peak due to meridional variations in the Newtonian cooling coefficient. The equatorial peak in SST warming is due to the mean evaporation pattern, determined by SST, wind speed, and relative humidity. The northern subtropical SST warming is greater than the southern, with wind effects dominating. The equatorial Pacific SST warming features a broad maximum in the central basin, with westerly wind anomalies deepening the thermocline and warming the eastern ocean. The evaporative damping effect transforms an eastward-decreasing ocean heat transport into a nearly zonal-uniform warming pattern.
In the equatorial Indian Ocean, SST warming is nearly zonally uniform, with reduced warming in the east. The sharp SST gradients force precipitation changes and drive south-easterly wind anomalies. The patterns indicate Bjerknes feedback and resemble the Indian Ocean dipole. The IOD is a major climate variability mode, with SST warming patterns developing during the Sumatra upwelling season. The Southern Ocean cooling is propagated equatorward via WES feedback, important for extratropical–tropical teleconnections.
In the North Atlantic, SST warming features northeast–southwest banded structures,