Global zombie companies: measurements, determinants, and outcomes

Global zombie companies: measurements, determinants, and outcomes

27 March 2024 | Edward I. Altman, Rui Dai, Wei Wang
This paper examines global zombieism, defined as insolvent firms surviving with financial support. Using interest coverage ratio and a validated default prediction model, the authors measure zombie firms in the 20 largest economies. The average zombie share of listed firms increased from 1.5% in 1990 to 7% in 2020, then slightly declined to 6.5% in 2021. Zombie firms are typically small and medium-sized enterprises. Economic growth, industry composition, and lenient monetary policies explain global zombieism. Zombie firms cause market congestion, limiting healthy firm growth. Global corporate bond markets contribute to zombie firm growth. Bankruptcy reforms reduce zombie ratios by 1.4 percentage points, more so if laws are creditor-friendly. Zombie firms survive an average of 5 years before bankruptcy, delisting, or acquisition. Bankruptcy reforms accelerate their dissolution. The study finds that countries with higher GDP growth, stock returns, and investment-grade credit ratings have fewer zombies. Countries with more small firms, limited manufacturing, and a significant utility sector have higher zombie ratios. High-yield debt market growth increases zombie ratios. The expansion of corporate debt markets, driven by unconventional monetary policies and yield-seeking investors, helps finance high-default-risk firms. The growth of high-yield debt markets and distressed debt securities creates mechanisms for resolving financial distress, aiding zombie firms' survival. The study also finds that bankruptcy law reforms reduce zombie ratios. Countries with substantial reforms saw a 1.4 percentage point reduction in zombie ratios. The results validate the parallel trend assumption, suggesting that bankruptcy reforms are exogenous. The study highlights the complex interplay between economic, legal, and market factors in the persistence and resolution of zombie firms.This paper examines global zombieism, defined as insolvent firms surviving with financial support. Using interest coverage ratio and a validated default prediction model, the authors measure zombie firms in the 20 largest economies. The average zombie share of listed firms increased from 1.5% in 1990 to 7% in 2020, then slightly declined to 6.5% in 2021. Zombie firms are typically small and medium-sized enterprises. Economic growth, industry composition, and lenient monetary policies explain global zombieism. Zombie firms cause market congestion, limiting healthy firm growth. Global corporate bond markets contribute to zombie firm growth. Bankruptcy reforms reduce zombie ratios by 1.4 percentage points, more so if laws are creditor-friendly. Zombie firms survive an average of 5 years before bankruptcy, delisting, or acquisition. Bankruptcy reforms accelerate their dissolution. The study finds that countries with higher GDP growth, stock returns, and investment-grade credit ratings have fewer zombies. Countries with more small firms, limited manufacturing, and a significant utility sector have higher zombie ratios. High-yield debt market growth increases zombie ratios. The expansion of corporate debt markets, driven by unconventional monetary policies and yield-seeking investors, helps finance high-default-risk firms. The growth of high-yield debt markets and distressed debt securities creates mechanisms for resolving financial distress, aiding zombie firms' survival. The study also finds that bankruptcy law reforms reduce zombie ratios. Countries with substantial reforms saw a 1.4 percentage point reduction in zombie ratios. The results validate the parallel trend assumption, suggesting that bankruptcy reforms are exogenous. The study highlights the complex interplay between economic, legal, and market factors in the persistence and resolution of zombie firms.
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