This article explores the theoretical and empirical impacts of green technology progress on carbon emissions. Using a three-sector model (capital, labor, and energy) and provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, the study constructs a theoretical mechanism to explain how green technology progress affects carbon emission growth. The empirical analysis reveals that green technology progress promotes an increase in carbon emission growth through the scale effect (impact coefficient: 0.607) and a decrease in carbon emission growth through the technological effect (impact coefficient: -0.667). The combined effect of these two mechanisms promotes a decrease in carbon emission growth (impact coefficient: -0.06). The share of energy inputs positively moderates the scale effect. The study also finds that the rate of green technology progress has a significant negative impact on carbon emission growth, with an impact coefficient of approximately -0.06. The empirical results support the theoretical propositions and provide insights into achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Policy recommendations include increasing financial support for green technology, reducing administrative intervention, and implementing differentiated subsidies based on resource endowment and industrial structure.This article explores the theoretical and empirical impacts of green technology progress on carbon emissions. Using a three-sector model (capital, labor, and energy) and provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, the study constructs a theoretical mechanism to explain how green technology progress affects carbon emission growth. The empirical analysis reveals that green technology progress promotes an increase in carbon emission growth through the scale effect (impact coefficient: 0.607) and a decrease in carbon emission growth through the technological effect (impact coefficient: -0.667). The combined effect of these two mechanisms promotes a decrease in carbon emission growth (impact coefficient: -0.06). The share of energy inputs positively moderates the scale effect. The study also finds that the rate of green technology progress has a significant negative impact on carbon emission growth, with an impact coefficient of approximately -0.06. The empirical results support the theoretical propositions and provide insights into achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Policy recommendations include increasing financial support for green technology, reducing administrative intervention, and implementing differentiated subsidies based on resource endowment and industrial structure.