This study investigates the impact of green technology progress on carbon emissions, carbon peak, and carbon reduction. Based on a three-sector production model incorporating capital, labor, and energy, the paper analyzes the theoretical and empirical mechanisms of how green technology progress affects carbon emission growth. Using provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, the study calculates carbon emissions based on energy consumption and carbon emission coefficients. It employs the perpetual inventory method to calculate capital growth rates and green technology progress rates, providing data support for the green technology carbon reduction model. The study uses the FGLS panel model to analyze the impact of green technology progress on carbon emissions, finding that green technology progress promotes an increase in the carbon emission growth rate through the scale effect (impact coefficient of 0.607) and a decrease through the technological effect (impact coefficient of -0.667). The combined effect results in a decrease in carbon emission growth rate (impact coefficient of -0.06). The share of energy inputs has a positive moderating effect on the scale effect. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that green technology progress promotes an increase in the carbon emission growth rate through the scale effect, and a decrease through the technological effect. The technological effect is greater than the scale effect, leading to a decrease in the carbon emission growth rate. When the carbon emission growth rate is zero, a carbon peak is achieved; when it becomes negative, carbon emissions decrease. The share of energy inputs has a positive moderating effect on the scale effect. Empirical results show that the rate of green technology progress has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of carbon emissions, with an impact coefficient of approximately -0.06, consistent with theoretical propositions. The green technology progress rate has a significant negative impact on the carbon emissions growth rate through the technological effect, with an impact coefficient of -0.667. The scale effect is calculated as 0.607, consistent with theoretical proposition 2. The moderating effect of the energy input share on the scale effect is significantly positive, consistent with theoretical proposition 1. The study conducts robustness and heterogeneity analyses, finding that the overall model is robust. The results show that the impact of green technology progress on carbon emission growth rate is significant in non-pilot provinces but insignificant in pilot provinces. This may be due to challenges in adopting and applying green technologies in pilot provinces. The paper suggests that the government should increase financial support for green technology and reduce administrative intervention in market behavior, while implementing differentiated green technology subsidies or carbon emission subsidy policies based on regional differences.This study investigates the impact of green technology progress on carbon emissions, carbon peak, and carbon reduction. Based on a three-sector production model incorporating capital, labor, and energy, the paper analyzes the theoretical and empirical mechanisms of how green technology progress affects carbon emission growth. Using provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, the study calculates carbon emissions based on energy consumption and carbon emission coefficients. It employs the perpetual inventory method to calculate capital growth rates and green technology progress rates, providing data support for the green technology carbon reduction model. The study uses the FGLS panel model to analyze the impact of green technology progress on carbon emissions, finding that green technology progress promotes an increase in the carbon emission growth rate through the scale effect (impact coefficient of 0.607) and a decrease through the technological effect (impact coefficient of -0.667). The combined effect results in a decrease in carbon emission growth rate (impact coefficient of -0.06). The share of energy inputs has a positive moderating effect on the scale effect. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that green technology progress promotes an increase in the carbon emission growth rate through the scale effect, and a decrease through the technological effect. The technological effect is greater than the scale effect, leading to a decrease in the carbon emission growth rate. When the carbon emission growth rate is zero, a carbon peak is achieved; when it becomes negative, carbon emissions decrease. The share of energy inputs has a positive moderating effect on the scale effect. Empirical results show that the rate of green technology progress has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of carbon emissions, with an impact coefficient of approximately -0.06, consistent with theoretical propositions. The green technology progress rate has a significant negative impact on the carbon emissions growth rate through the technological effect, with an impact coefficient of -0.667. The scale effect is calculated as 0.607, consistent with theoretical proposition 2. The moderating effect of the energy input share on the scale effect is significantly positive, consistent with theoretical proposition 1. The study conducts robustness and heterogeneity analyses, finding that the overall model is robust. The results show that the impact of green technology progress on carbon emission growth rate is significant in non-pilot provinces but insignificant in pilot provinces. This may be due to challenges in adopting and applying green technologies in pilot provinces. The paper suggests that the government should increase financial support for green technology and reduce administrative intervention in market behavior, while implementing differentiated green technology subsidies or carbon emission subsidy policies based on regional differences.