Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences

Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences

1:1995 | PAUL KRUGMAN
The chapter discusses the growth of world trade and its causes and consequences. It highlights that while many economic journalists and policymakers attribute the transformation of the American economy to globalization, international economists argue that the impact of globalization is often exaggerated. Despite this, international trade has significantly increased since the 1960s, with the share of trade in GDP rising from 4.7% to 11.4% in the United States. The chapter also notes that while the growth of trade has been substantial, it has not been as dramatic in other advanced countries, though some developing countries, like China, have seen explosive growth. The chapter explores the reasons behind the growth of world trade, noting that while technological advancements have played a role, political factors such as the removal of protectionist measures have been equally important. It discusses the impact of low-wage exports from developing countries on wages and employment in developed nations, presenting a stylized general-equilibrium model to analyze these effects. The model assumes a world with two economies: one representing the OECD and the other representing newly industrializing economies (NIEs). The analysis focuses on the rise of intra-trade, the slicing of the value chain, and the emergence of supertrading economies. The chapter concludes by examining the impact of NIE exports on OECD labor markets, noting that while some studies suggest significant pressure from low-wage imports on unskilled labor, others find the impact to be small or elusive. The chapter emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the interaction between labor market developments in high-wage countries and the growth of exports from low-wage countries.The chapter discusses the growth of world trade and its causes and consequences. It highlights that while many economic journalists and policymakers attribute the transformation of the American economy to globalization, international economists argue that the impact of globalization is often exaggerated. Despite this, international trade has significantly increased since the 1960s, with the share of trade in GDP rising from 4.7% to 11.4% in the United States. The chapter also notes that while the growth of trade has been substantial, it has not been as dramatic in other advanced countries, though some developing countries, like China, have seen explosive growth. The chapter explores the reasons behind the growth of world trade, noting that while technological advancements have played a role, political factors such as the removal of protectionist measures have been equally important. It discusses the impact of low-wage exports from developing countries on wages and employment in developed nations, presenting a stylized general-equilibrium model to analyze these effects. The model assumes a world with two economies: one representing the OECD and the other representing newly industrializing economies (NIEs). The analysis focuses on the rise of intra-trade, the slicing of the value chain, and the emergence of supertrading economies. The chapter concludes by examining the impact of NIE exports on OECD labor markets, noting that while some studies suggest significant pressure from low-wage imports on unskilled labor, others find the impact to be small or elusive. The chapter emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the interaction between labor market developments in high-wage countries and the growth of exports from low-wage countries.
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