1 August 2006 | Sandrine Bony, Robert Colman, Vladimir M. Kattsov, Richard P. Allan, Christopher S. Bretherton, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Alex Hall, Stephane Hallette, Marika M. Holland, William Ingram, David A. Randall, Brian J. Soden, George Tselioudis, and Mark J. Webb
The article reviews recent progress in understanding and evaluating climate feedback processes, which are crucial for estimating climate sensitivity. Climate feedbacks, such as those involving water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, significantly influence the climate system's response to external perturbations. The paper highlights advancements in understanding the physical mechanisms behind these feedbacks, interpreting intermodel differences in global estimates, and developing methodologies to evaluate feedbacks using observations. Key findings include:
1. **Progress in Understanding**: There has been significant progress in understanding the physical mechanisms involved in climate feedbacks, including the role of water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice.
2. **Intermodel Differences**: Intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks remain substantial, with cloud feedbacks being the most uncertain and variable.
3. **Evaluation Methodologies**: New approaches have been developed to evaluate cloud feedbacks in climate models, including using satellite data and comparing observed and simulated cloud fields.
4. **Cloud Feedbacks**: Cloud feedbacks are identified as the largest source of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent studies have explored how changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and temperature might affect cloud properties and their radiative forcing.
5. **New Approaches**: Advances in evaluating clouds in climate models include using "ISCCP simulators" to compare observed and simulated cloud diagnostics and evaluating models' ability to reproduce observed cloud variations at various time scales.
The paper emphasizes the importance of continued research to improve the realism of climate change feedbacks and reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimates.The article reviews recent progress in understanding and evaluating climate feedback processes, which are crucial for estimating climate sensitivity. Climate feedbacks, such as those involving water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, snow, and sea ice, significantly influence the climate system's response to external perturbations. The paper highlights advancements in understanding the physical mechanisms behind these feedbacks, interpreting intermodel differences in global estimates, and developing methodologies to evaluate feedbacks using observations. Key findings include:
1. **Progress in Understanding**: There has been significant progress in understanding the physical mechanisms involved in climate feedbacks, including the role of water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice.
2. **Intermodel Differences**: Intermodel differences in global estimates of these feedbacks remain substantial, with cloud feedbacks being the most uncertain and variable.
3. **Evaluation Methodologies**: New approaches have been developed to evaluate cloud feedbacks in climate models, including using satellite data and comparing observed and simulated cloud fields.
4. **Cloud Feedbacks**: Cloud feedbacks are identified as the largest source of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Recent studies have explored how changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and temperature might affect cloud properties and their radiative forcing.
5. **New Approaches**: Advances in evaluating clouds in climate models include using "ISCCP simulators" to compare observed and simulated cloud diagnostics and evaluating models' ability to reproduce observed cloud variations at various time scales.
The paper emphasizes the importance of continued research to improve the realism of climate change feedbacks and reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimates.