How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

04 January 2024 | Kerilyn Schewel*, Sarah Dickerson, B. Madson and Gabriela Nagle Alverio
This article reviews the state of climate-related migration forecasting models, based on an analysis of thirty recent models. It highlights the key characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of different modeling approaches, including gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics, and statistical extrapolation models. The authors argue that while these models have made significant advancements, they are still not capable of providing reliable numerical estimates of future climate-related migration. Instead, models are best used as tools to explore a range of possible futures, systems dynamics, and potential policy effects. The article also discusses the need for improved migration data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and scenarios-based planning. The review covers the conceptualization of climate-related migration, the types of forecasting models, and the methodology used to conduct the literature review. It provides an overview of the key characteristics of the reviewed models, including their geographic scope, model inputs, and outputs. Finally, the article presents in-depth analyses of five illustrative models to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of different modeling approaches.This article reviews the state of climate-related migration forecasting models, based on an analysis of thirty recent models. It highlights the key characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of different modeling approaches, including gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics, and statistical extrapolation models. The authors argue that while these models have made significant advancements, they are still not capable of providing reliable numerical estimates of future climate-related migration. Instead, models are best used as tools to explore a range of possible futures, systems dynamics, and potential policy effects. The article also discusses the need for improved migration data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and scenarios-based planning. The review covers the conceptualization of climate-related migration, the types of forecasting models, and the methodology used to conduct the literature review. It provides an overview of the key characteristics of the reviewed models, including their geographic scope, model inputs, and outputs. Finally, the article presents in-depth analyses of five illustrative models to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of different modeling approaches.
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