Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States

Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States

22 February 2008 | Tim P. Barnett, David W. Pierce, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Celine Bonfils, Benjamin D. Santer, Tapash Das, Govindasamy Bala, Andrew W. Wood, Toru Nozawa, Arthur A. Mirin, Daniel R. Cayan, Michael D. Dettinger
A study published in 2008 by Tim P. Barnett and colleagues found that human-induced climate changes have significantly altered the hydrology of the western United States. Using a high-resolution hydrologic model driven by global climate models, the researchers analyzed trends in river flow, winter air temperature, and snowpack from 1950 to 1999. They found that up to 60% of these trends are attributable to human activities, primarily greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The results were robust to variations in study variables and methods, indicating a strong human influence. The western United States is water-limited, and the study highlights the negative impacts of changing hydrology on the region. Observations show a shift in mountain precipitation, with more rain than snow, earlier snowmelt, and changes in river flow. These changes are linked to warming temperatures, which have exacerbated drier summer conditions. While natural climate variability could explain some changes, the study suggests that human-induced factors are the primary cause. The researchers used a multivariate detection and attribution (D&A) methodology to analyze the data, comparing observed trends with model simulations. They found that the observed changes in snow water equivalent, runoff timing, and temperature trends are consistent with human-induced climate changes. The study also ruled out natural factors like solar and volcanic activity as explanations for the observed changes. The results indicate that the majority of the observed changes in western hydrology are due to human activities. The study emphasizes the need for modifications to water infrastructure in the region to address the projected water shortages. The findings are supported by multiple climate models and are consistent with previous research on climate change impacts in the western United States. The study concludes that human-induced climate changes are a significant factor in the observed hydrological changes, and that the region faces a potential water crisis.A study published in 2008 by Tim P. Barnett and colleagues found that human-induced climate changes have significantly altered the hydrology of the western United States. Using a high-resolution hydrologic model driven by global climate models, the researchers analyzed trends in river flow, winter air temperature, and snowpack from 1950 to 1999. They found that up to 60% of these trends are attributable to human activities, primarily greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The results were robust to variations in study variables and methods, indicating a strong human influence. The western United States is water-limited, and the study highlights the negative impacts of changing hydrology on the region. Observations show a shift in mountain precipitation, with more rain than snow, earlier snowmelt, and changes in river flow. These changes are linked to warming temperatures, which have exacerbated drier summer conditions. While natural climate variability could explain some changes, the study suggests that human-induced factors are the primary cause. The researchers used a multivariate detection and attribution (D&A) methodology to analyze the data, comparing observed trends with model simulations. They found that the observed changes in snow water equivalent, runoff timing, and temperature trends are consistent with human-induced climate changes. The study also ruled out natural factors like solar and volcanic activity as explanations for the observed changes. The results indicate that the majority of the observed changes in western hydrology are due to human activities. The study emphasizes the need for modifications to water infrastructure in the region to address the projected water shortages. The findings are supported by multiple climate models and are consistent with previous research on climate change impacts in the western United States. The study concludes that human-induced climate changes are a significant factor in the observed hydrological changes, and that the region faces a potential water crisis.
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