Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall

Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall

March 13, 2012 | Jiping Liu, Judith A. Curry, Huijun Wang, Mirong Song, and Radley M. Horton
The decline in Arctic sea ice has been linked to increased snowfall in recent winters across North America, Europe, and East Asia. This study shows that the reduction in autumn Arctic sea ice area is associated with changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resembling the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but with broader meridional meanders and different interannual variability. These circulation changes lead to more frequent blocking patterns, causing cold surges over northern continents. Additionally, the increase in atmospheric water vapor due to reduced sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting heavy snowfall in Europe and the northeastern and midwestern United States. The study concludes that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters. The research combines observational data and numerical experiments to demonstrate the connection between declining Arctic sea ice and anomalously large snowfall. Since the late 1970s, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing, with the most significant loss in September. The autumn sea ice area has declined by 27.3% from 1979–2010. The loss of sea ice leads to increased ocean surface heat and moisture flux into the atmosphere, affecting winter atmospheric circulation. The regression analysis shows that a decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice corresponds to significantly above-normal winter snow cover in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China. Changes in atmospheric circulation linked to diminishing Arctic sea ice result in weakened westerly winds, enhancing broader meanders and blocking patterns. These patterns favor more frequent incursions of cold air masses into mid- and low-latitude regions, leading to increased cold events. The study also highlights that the increase in atmospheric water vapor due to reduced sea ice provides additional moisture sources, contributing to heavy snowfall in Europe and the northeastern United States. The results of the study support the hypothesis that the decline of Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in driving recent cold and snowy winters over large parts of North America, Europe, and East Asia. The findings suggest that future declines in Arctic sea ice may lead to more frequent and persistent snowstorms in these regions.The decline in Arctic sea ice has been linked to increased snowfall in recent winters across North America, Europe, and East Asia. This study shows that the reduction in autumn Arctic sea ice area is associated with changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resembling the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but with broader meridional meanders and different interannual variability. These circulation changes lead to more frequent blocking patterns, causing cold surges over northern continents. Additionally, the increase in atmospheric water vapor due to reduced sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting heavy snowfall in Europe and the northeastern and midwestern United States. The study concludes that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters. The research combines observational data and numerical experiments to demonstrate the connection between declining Arctic sea ice and anomalously large snowfall. Since the late 1970s, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing, with the most significant loss in September. The autumn sea ice area has declined by 27.3% from 1979–2010. The loss of sea ice leads to increased ocean surface heat and moisture flux into the atmosphere, affecting winter atmospheric circulation. The regression analysis shows that a decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice corresponds to significantly above-normal winter snow cover in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China. Changes in atmospheric circulation linked to diminishing Arctic sea ice result in weakened westerly winds, enhancing broader meanders and blocking patterns. These patterns favor more frequent incursions of cold air masses into mid- and low-latitude regions, leading to increased cold events. The study also highlights that the increase in atmospheric water vapor due to reduced sea ice provides additional moisture sources, contributing to heavy snowfall in Europe and the northeastern United States. The results of the study support the hypothesis that the decline of Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in driving recent cold and snowy winters over large parts of North America, Europe, and East Asia. The findings suggest that future declines in Arctic sea ice may lead to more frequent and persistent snowstorms in these regions.
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