Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries

Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries

Received 22 August 2008; received in revised form 20 September 2008; accepted 21 September 2008 | Maros Ivanic and Will Martin
The article examines the impact of higher global food prices on poverty in low-income countries. It finds that while some poor households may benefit from higher food prices if they are net sellers of food, the overall effect is likely to be negative, as most poor households are net consumers of food. The study uses household survey data from nine low-income countries to analyze the short-run impacts of increased food prices on household income and poverty rates. The results show that poverty increases are more frequent and larger than poverty reductions, with the average impact on poverty being adverse. The study also simulates the impact of the observed food price increases between 2005 and 2007, finding that the average impact was to increase poverty in most countries. The findings suggest that the high shares of staple foods in poor people's expenditures make them vulnerable to food price rises, and that the limited output marketed by small, subsistence farmers reduces their benefits. The study concludes that while there are potential mitigation strategies, the full costs of the surge in food prices could be significant, especially if it leads to higher inflation rates.The article examines the impact of higher global food prices on poverty in low-income countries. It finds that while some poor households may benefit from higher food prices if they are net sellers of food, the overall effect is likely to be negative, as most poor households are net consumers of food. The study uses household survey data from nine low-income countries to analyze the short-run impacts of increased food prices on household income and poverty rates. The results show that poverty increases are more frequent and larger than poverty reductions, with the average impact on poverty being adverse. The study also simulates the impact of the observed food price increases between 2005 and 2007, finding that the average impact was to increase poverty in most countries. The findings suggest that the high shares of staple foods in poor people's expenditures make them vulnerable to food price rises, and that the limited output marketed by small, subsistence farmers reduces their benefits. The study concludes that while there are potential mitigation strategies, the full costs of the surge in food prices could be significant, especially if it leads to higher inflation rates.
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Understanding Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries