Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions

Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions

30 OCTOBER 2009 VOL 326 | Drew T. Shindell, Greg Faluvegi, Dorothy M. Koch, Gavin A. Schmidt, Nadine Unger, Susanne E. Bauer
The article "Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions" by Drew T. Shindell et al. evaluates the impact of various emissions on climate change, focusing on the interactions between gas and aerosol species. The authors used a coupled composition-climate model to calculate atmospheric composition changes, historical radiative forcing, and forcing per unit of emission due to aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions. They found that gas-aerosol interactions significantly alter the relative importance of different emissions, particularly methane, which has a larger impact than previously estimated in carbon-trading schemes or the Kyoto Protocol. The study highlights the need to consider these interactions in assessments of multicomponent climate change mitigation strategies and in policies targeting short-lived pollutants. The results also suggest that the 100-year global warming potential (GWP) for methane is larger when gas-aerosol interactions are included, and that ecosystem responses could further increase the GWP for methane and CO. The authors discuss the limitations of the GWP concept and emphasize the importance of improving understanding of aerosol-climate interactions for better policy-making and climate change mitigation.The article "Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions" by Drew T. Shindell et al. evaluates the impact of various emissions on climate change, focusing on the interactions between gas and aerosol species. The authors used a coupled composition-climate model to calculate atmospheric composition changes, historical radiative forcing, and forcing per unit of emission due to aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions. They found that gas-aerosol interactions significantly alter the relative importance of different emissions, particularly methane, which has a larger impact than previously estimated in carbon-trading schemes or the Kyoto Protocol. The study highlights the need to consider these interactions in assessments of multicomponent climate change mitigation strategies and in policies targeting short-lived pollutants. The results also suggest that the 100-year global warming potential (GWP) for methane is larger when gas-aerosol interactions are included, and that ecosystem responses could further increase the GWP for methane and CO. The authors discuss the limitations of the GWP concept and emphasize the importance of improving understanding of aerosol-climate interactions for better policy-making and climate change mitigation.
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