Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system

Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system

February 12, 2008 | vol. 105 | no. 6 | Timothy M. Lenton*, Hermann Held*, Elmar Kriegler*, Jim W. Hall*, Wolfgang Lucht*, Stefan Rahmstorf†, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber†‡**
The article introduces the concept of "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system, which are large-scale components that can pass a critical threshold, leading to qualitative changes in their behavior. The authors critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on literature and an international workshop. They define tipping elements as subcontinental-scale subsystems that can be switched into different states by small perturbations, with critical thresholds that can be identified through model studies, paleodata, and historical data. The article identifies several key tipping elements, including the Arctic sea-ice, Greenland ice sheet, West Antarctic ice sheet, Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon, Sahara/Sahel and West African monsoon, and Amazon rainforest. The authors rank these elements based on their sensitivity to global warming and associated uncertainties, with the Arctic sea-ice and Greenland ice sheet being the most threatened. They also discuss the prospects for early warning systems to detect approaching tipping points, emphasizing the need for improved observation systems and extended time series data. The article concludes by highlighting the urgency of understanding and managing these tipping elements to mitigate their potential impacts on society.The article introduces the concept of "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system, which are large-scale components that can pass a critical threshold, leading to qualitative changes in their behavior. The authors critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on literature and an international workshop. They define tipping elements as subcontinental-scale subsystems that can be switched into different states by small perturbations, with critical thresholds that can be identified through model studies, paleodata, and historical data. The article identifies several key tipping elements, including the Arctic sea-ice, Greenland ice sheet, West Antarctic ice sheet, Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon, Sahara/Sahel and West African monsoon, and Amazon rainforest. The authors rank these elements based on their sensitivity to global warming and associated uncertainties, with the Arctic sea-ice and Greenland ice sheet being the most threatened. They also discuss the prospects for early warning systems to detect approaching tipping points, emphasizing the need for improved observation systems and extended time series data. The article concludes by highlighting the urgency of understanding and managing these tipping elements to mitigate their potential impacts on society.
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