February 12, 2008 | Timothy M. Lenton, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler, Jim W. Hall, Wolfgang Lucht, Stefan Rahmstorf, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
The article discusses the concept of "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system, which are large-scale components that may cross critical thresholds, leading to qualitative changes. The authors identify potential policy-relevant tipping elements under anthropogenic forcing, such as the Arctic sea-ice, Greenland ice sheet, West Antarctic ice sheet, Atlantic thermohaline circulation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian summer monsoon, Sahara/Sahel and West African monsoon, Amazon rainforest, and boreal forests. These elements could undergo abrupt changes due to global warming, with varying degrees of sensitivity and uncertainty. The study emphasizes the need for early warning systems to detect approaching tipping points, as well as the importance of understanding the physical mechanisms behind these changes. The authors conclude that the greatest threat is to the Arctic sea-ice, which may reach its tipping point before the Greenland ice sheet. They highlight the need for improved understanding of the underlying mechanisms and policy responses to mitigate and adapt to these potential tipping points. The study also underscores the importance of continued research and monitoring to better predict and manage the impacts of climate change on the Earth system.The article discusses the concept of "tipping elements" in the Earth's climate system, which are large-scale components that may cross critical thresholds, leading to qualitative changes. The authors identify potential policy-relevant tipping elements under anthropogenic forcing, such as the Arctic sea-ice, Greenland ice sheet, West Antarctic ice sheet, Atlantic thermohaline circulation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian summer monsoon, Sahara/Sahel and West African monsoon, Amazon rainforest, and boreal forests. These elements could undergo abrupt changes due to global warming, with varying degrees of sensitivity and uncertainty. The study emphasizes the need for early warning systems to detect approaching tipping points, as well as the importance of understanding the physical mechanisms behind these changes. The authors conclude that the greatest threat is to the Arctic sea-ice, which may reach its tipping point before the Greenland ice sheet. They highlight the need for improved understanding of the underlying mechanisms and policy responses to mitigate and adapt to these potential tipping points. The study also underscores the importance of continued research and monitoring to better predict and manage the impacts of climate change on the Earth system.