This study investigates how long-term climate trends influence the frequency of extreme weather events, using both analytical methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The research focuses on heat records and finds that the number of record-breaking events increases in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term variability. A warming climate increases the number of heat extremes, while short-term variability reduces it. For extremes exceeding a fixed threshold, the relationship with warming is highly nonlinear. The study also finds that the sum of warm and cold extremes increases with any climate change, whether warming or cooling. The analysis is applied to global mean temperature data and Moscow's July temperature data. For global mean temperature, the study estimates that the number of new temperature records in the last decade has increased from 0.1 to 2.8 due to climate warming. For Moscow, the local warming trend has increased the number of records expected in the past decade fivefold, implying an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming. The study also shows that the probability of a new July heat record in Moscow has increased significantly, with a 50% chance in the last decade. This increase is attributed to the warming trend since the 1980s, which is largely anthropogenic. The analysis highlights that the number of extreme events is closely linked to the ratio of climate trend to short-term variability. In data with high variability compared to the trend, such as daily station data, the climate-related increase in extremes is relatively small. However, in data where the standard deviation is similar to the trend, like monthly mean station data, the expected number of extremes is much higher than in a stationary climate. The study concludes that climate warming significantly increases the likelihood of extreme weather events, with the magnitude of this increase depending on the ratio of the warming trend to short-term variability. The results suggest that most recent extreme weather events, including the 2010 Moscow heat wave, are likely due to anthropogenic climate change.This study investigates how long-term climate trends influence the frequency of extreme weather events, using both analytical methods and Monte Carlo simulations. The research focuses on heat records and finds that the number of record-breaking events increases in proportion to the ratio of warming trend to short-term variability. A warming climate increases the number of heat extremes, while short-term variability reduces it. For extremes exceeding a fixed threshold, the relationship with warming is highly nonlinear. The study also finds that the sum of warm and cold extremes increases with any climate change, whether warming or cooling. The analysis is applied to global mean temperature data and Moscow's July temperature data. For global mean temperature, the study estimates that the number of new temperature records in the last decade has increased from 0.1 to 2.8 due to climate warming. For Moscow, the local warming trend has increased the number of records expected in the past decade fivefold, implying an approximate 80% probability that the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred without climate warming. The study also shows that the probability of a new July heat record in Moscow has increased significantly, with a 50% chance in the last decade. This increase is attributed to the warming trend since the 1980s, which is largely anthropogenic. The analysis highlights that the number of extreme events is closely linked to the ratio of climate trend to short-term variability. In data with high variability compared to the trend, such as daily station data, the climate-related increase in extremes is relatively small. However, in data where the standard deviation is similar to the trend, like monthly mean station data, the expected number of extremes is much higher than in a stationary climate. The study concludes that climate warming significantly increases the likelihood of extreme weather events, with the magnitude of this increase depending on the ratio of the warming trend to short-term variability. The results suggest that most recent extreme weather events, including the 2010 Moscow heat wave, are likely due to anthropogenic climate change.