Informing disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses

Informing disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure using scenario-based recovery analyses

05 January 2024 | Eytayo A. Opabola & Carmine Galasso
This article proposes a scenario-based recovery analysis framework to support disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries. It applies the framework to a hypothetical earthquake scenario in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, to assess the impact of policies on education continuity. The study highlights the importance of early response financing mechanisms, which can accelerate education recovery by up to three times, and community-managed school reconstruction projects, which are likely to be completed up to three to five times faster than agency-managed projects. The framework accounts for sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors influencing the recovery of school infrastructure. It also demonstrates how the framework can prioritize school reconstruction projects to ensure inclusive education continuity at the community level. The study emphasizes the need for policies that ensure post-disaster education continuity, as education disruption can have severe socioeconomic consequences, including long-term health issues, reduced productivity, and loss of income. The framework includes modules for hazard analysis, post-disaster functionality assessment, decision-making analysis, intervention prioritization, and recovery modeling. It uses probabilistic methods to simulate recovery trajectories and assess the impact of various factors on recovery time. The case study focuses on a community of 80 schools in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, subjected to a hypothetical M7.0 earthquake. The analysis reveals that early response financing mechanisms significantly improve education recovery, while community-managed projects are more efficient. The framework also considers the influence of sociocultural, environmental, and political factors on recovery, as well as the preferences of decision-makers in prioritizing school reconstruction projects. The study concludes that the proposed framework can support policy-making by considering the vulnerabilities of disaster-prone communities and ensuring inclusive education continuity.This article proposes a scenario-based recovery analysis framework to support disaster-risk management policies for education infrastructure, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries. It applies the framework to a hypothetical earthquake scenario in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, to assess the impact of policies on education continuity. The study highlights the importance of early response financing mechanisms, which can accelerate education recovery by up to three times, and community-managed school reconstruction projects, which are likely to be completed up to three to five times faster than agency-managed projects. The framework accounts for sociocultural, technical, economic, environmental, and political factors influencing the recovery of school infrastructure. It also demonstrates how the framework can prioritize school reconstruction projects to ensure inclusive education continuity at the community level. The study emphasizes the need for policies that ensure post-disaster education continuity, as education disruption can have severe socioeconomic consequences, including long-term health issues, reduced productivity, and loss of income. The framework includes modules for hazard analysis, post-disaster functionality assessment, decision-making analysis, intervention prioritization, and recovery modeling. It uses probabilistic methods to simulate recovery trajectories and assess the impact of various factors on recovery time. The case study focuses on a community of 80 schools in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, subjected to a hypothetical M7.0 earthquake. The analysis reveals that early response financing mechanisms significantly improve education recovery, while community-managed projects are more efficient. The framework also considers the influence of sociocultural, environmental, and political factors on recovery, as well as the preferences of decision-makers in prioritizing school reconstruction projects. The study concludes that the proposed framework can support policy-making by considering the vulnerabilities of disaster-prone communities and ensuring inclusive education continuity.
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