Is Green Growth Possible? Jason Hickel and Giorgos Kallis Abstract: The concept of green growth has become a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory claims that economic expansion can be compatible with the planet's ecology through technological change and substitution, allowing absolute decoupling of GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. However, empirical evidence does not support this claim. Studies show that absolute decoupling from resource use is not achievable globally, and decoupling from carbon emissions is unlikely to be fast enough to prevent global warming. The authors conclude that green growth is likely a misguided objective and that alternative strategies are needed. Introduction: Green growth emerged as a central theme at the Rio+20 Conference in 2012. It is promoted by international organizations and assumed in national and international policy. It rests on the assumption that absolute decoupling of GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions is feasible. This paper examines this assumption against empirical evidence. Defining Green Growth: Three major institutions—OECD, UNEP, and World Bank—define green growth. The OECD emphasizes maintaining resources and environmental services, the World Bank focuses on minimizing environmental impact, and UNEP emphasizes reducing environmental impact and ecological scarcities. All agree that technological change and substitution can improve ecological efficiency, but differ in the clarity of their claims. Resource Use: Domestic material consumption (DMC) is a key metric for measuring resource use. While DMC is a widely used proxy, it does not account for the material impact of imported goods. Studies show that many nations have achieved relative decoupling, but no evidence of absolute decoupling. Global resource use has been rising, and the 21st century has seen no significant decoupling. Technological innovation and policy may drive decoupling, but empirical studies suggest that even with these, absolute decoupling is not feasible. Carbon Emissions: There is a steady long-term trend toward relative decoupling of GDP from carbon emissions. However, absolute reductions are possible. The Paris Agreement aims to keep warming below 1.5C or 2C. Studies show that even with aggressive mitigation policies, achieving this is challenging. Negative emissions technologies like BECCS are considered, but they are controversial and unproven. Without these, emissions must fall rapidly, which is not feasible with current technologies. Theoretical Possibilities: While green growth is not empirically actual, it is logically possible. The IPAT equation suggests that technological and policy improvements can reduce environmental impact. However, thermodynamic limits mean that indefinite growth will eventually increase resource and energy use. Absolute decoupling is theoretically possible but not empirically achievable with current trends. Conclusion: Empirical data suggest that absolute decoupling from resource use is not feasible globally, and carbon emissions must be reduced rapidly to meet Paris Agreement targets. Green growth theory lacks empirical support, and alternative strategies are needed. WithoutIs Green Growth Possible? Jason Hickel and Giorgos Kallis Abstract: The concept of green growth has become a dominant policy response to climate change and ecological breakdown. Green growth theory claims that economic expansion can be compatible with the planet's ecology through technological change and substitution, allowing absolute decoupling of GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions. However, empirical evidence does not support this claim. Studies show that absolute decoupling from resource use is not achievable globally, and decoupling from carbon emissions is unlikely to be fast enough to prevent global warming. The authors conclude that green growth is likely a misguided objective and that alternative strategies are needed. Introduction: Green growth emerged as a central theme at the Rio+20 Conference in 2012. It is promoted by international organizations and assumed in national and international policy. It rests on the assumption that absolute decoupling of GDP growth from resource use and carbon emissions is feasible. This paper examines this assumption against empirical evidence. Defining Green Growth: Three major institutions—OECD, UNEP, and World Bank—define green growth. The OECD emphasizes maintaining resources and environmental services, the World Bank focuses on minimizing environmental impact, and UNEP emphasizes reducing environmental impact and ecological scarcities. All agree that technological change and substitution can improve ecological efficiency, but differ in the clarity of their claims. Resource Use: Domestic material consumption (DMC) is a key metric for measuring resource use. While DMC is a widely used proxy, it does not account for the material impact of imported goods. Studies show that many nations have achieved relative decoupling, but no evidence of absolute decoupling. Global resource use has been rising, and the 21st century has seen no significant decoupling. Technological innovation and policy may drive decoupling, but empirical studies suggest that even with these, absolute decoupling is not feasible. Carbon Emissions: There is a steady long-term trend toward relative decoupling of GDP from carbon emissions. However, absolute reductions are possible. The Paris Agreement aims to keep warming below 1.5C or 2C. Studies show that even with aggressive mitigation policies, achieving this is challenging. Negative emissions technologies like BECCS are considered, but they are controversial and unproven. Without these, emissions must fall rapidly, which is not feasible with current technologies. Theoretical Possibilities: While green growth is not empirically actual, it is logically possible. The IPAT equation suggests that technological and policy improvements can reduce environmental impact. However, thermodynamic limits mean that indefinite growth will eventually increase resource and energy use. Absolute decoupling is theoretically possible but not empirically achievable with current trends. Conclusion: Empirical data suggest that absolute decoupling from resource use is not feasible globally, and carbon emissions must be reduced rapidly to meet Paris Agreement targets. Green growth theory lacks empirical support, and alternative strategies are needed. Without