JOB DISPLACEMENT AND MORTALITY: AN ANALYSIS USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

JOB DISPLACEMENT AND MORTALITY: AN ANALYSIS USING ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

August 2009 | DANIEL SULLIVAN AND TILL VON WACHTER
This study uses administrative data on the employment and earnings of Pennsylvania workers in the 1970s and 1980s, matched with Social Security Administration death records from 1980–2006, to estimate the effects of job displacement on mortality. The results show that high-seniority male workers who were displaced experienced significantly higher mortality rates in the year following displacement, with mortality hazards increasing by 50%–100%. This effect declines over time but remains significant, with a 10%–15% increase in annual death hazards even 20 years after displacement. For a worker displaced at age 40, this could result in a loss of 1.0–1.5 years in life expectancy. The study finds that these results are not due to selective displacement of less healthy workers or to unstable industries or firms offering less healthy work environments. It also shows that workers with larger earnings losses tend to experience greater increases in mortality. These findings are consistent with a firm-level analysis of the impact of employment declines on mortality, which pools displaced workers with those remaining with affected firms. The study also finds that job loss has little effect on mortality for workers near retirement age. The results suggest that the long-term effects of job displacement on mortality are similar to the long-term effects on earnings and employment reported in previous studies. In the short run, displacement is associated with a sharp drop in earnings, increased unemployment, and high earnings instability. In the long run, displacement is associated with a substantial drop in earnings and modestly higher employment instability and earnings variability. The study also finds that the impact of displacement on the mean and variability of earnings may explain a large fraction of the increase in the long-run mortality hazard. The results suggest that the long-term effects of job displacement on mortality are significant and that the mortality hazard increases over time, even for workers who are not near retirement age. The study also finds that the effects of job displacement on mortality are not due to selective displacement of less healthy workers or to unstable industries or firms offering less healthy work environments. The results are consistent with a firm-level analysis of the impact of employment declines on mortality, which pools displaced workers with those remaining with affected firms.This study uses administrative data on the employment and earnings of Pennsylvania workers in the 1970s and 1980s, matched with Social Security Administration death records from 1980–2006, to estimate the effects of job displacement on mortality. The results show that high-seniority male workers who were displaced experienced significantly higher mortality rates in the year following displacement, with mortality hazards increasing by 50%–100%. This effect declines over time but remains significant, with a 10%–15% increase in annual death hazards even 20 years after displacement. For a worker displaced at age 40, this could result in a loss of 1.0–1.5 years in life expectancy. The study finds that these results are not due to selective displacement of less healthy workers or to unstable industries or firms offering less healthy work environments. It also shows that workers with larger earnings losses tend to experience greater increases in mortality. These findings are consistent with a firm-level analysis of the impact of employment declines on mortality, which pools displaced workers with those remaining with affected firms. The study also finds that job loss has little effect on mortality for workers near retirement age. The results suggest that the long-term effects of job displacement on mortality are similar to the long-term effects on earnings and employment reported in previous studies. In the short run, displacement is associated with a sharp drop in earnings, increased unemployment, and high earnings instability. In the long run, displacement is associated with a substantial drop in earnings and modestly higher employment instability and earnings variability. The study also finds that the impact of displacement on the mean and variability of earnings may explain a large fraction of the increase in the long-run mortality hazard. The results suggest that the long-term effects of job displacement on mortality are significant and that the mortality hazard increases over time, even for workers who are not near retirement age. The study also finds that the effects of job displacement on mortality are not due to selective displacement of less healthy workers or to unstable industries or firms offering less healthy work environments. The results are consistent with a firm-level analysis of the impact of employment declines on mortality, which pools displaced workers with those remaining with affected firms.
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Understanding Job Displacement and Mortality%3A An Analysis Using Administrative Data