Kilometer-scale trends, variability, and extremes of the Adriatic far-future climate (RCP 8.5, 2070–2100)

Kilometer-scale trends, variability, and extremes of the Adriatic far-future climate (RCP 8.5, 2070–2100)

30 January 2024 | Iva Tojčić, Cléa Denamie, Ivica Vilibić
The Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale atmosphere-ocean model was developed to accurately assess climate hazards under historical and far-future conditions. The study analyzes the impact of climate change on projected trends, variability, and extreme events in the Adriatic region under RCP 8.5 scenarios (2070–2100). In the atmosphere, results align with existing literature, showing strong land-sea contrasts, increased droughts and extreme rainfall, and decreased wind speeds in coastal areas. In the ocean, surface and intermediate temperatures rise, with salinity decreasing except in summer coastal areas. Bottom temperatures and salinity show strong contrasts, with bottom temperature trends rising slower than surface. Ocean currents accelerate in surface and intermediate layers but decelerate at the bottom. These results suggest reduced dense water formation in the northern Adriatic, intensified and shrinking southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre, and strengthened vertical stratification in the deepest part of the Adriatic, likely linked to changes in Adriatic-Ionian water mass exchanges. The study highlights the need for increased kilometer-scale modeling efforts in the Adriatic region to better implement policies and adaptation plans tailored to local climate changes. The AdriSC model, with 3 km atmospheric and 1 km oceanic resolution, was implemented to better represent Adriatic coastal dynamics. Two 31-year simulations were performed: a historical run (1987–2017) and an extreme warming run (2070–2100). The study compares these results with those from the EURO- and Med-CORDEX RCMs. The AdriSC model shows stronger performance in capturing fine-scale dynamics in both atmosphere and ocean under historical conditions. The far-future projections indicate significant warming, with temperature trends up to 0.5°C per decade, increased extreme heat events, and changes in precipitation patterns. The model also shows reduced dense water formation in the northern Adriatic, increased salinity in the southern Adriatic, and changes in ocean currents. The study highlights the need for further research to understand the implications of these changes for the Adriatic region's climate and ecosystems. The AdriSC model's results are compared with previous studies, showing similarities and differences in trends and variability. The study concludes that the Adriatic region is experiencing significant climate changes, including increased extreme weather events, changes in precipitation patterns, and impacts on marine life and ecosystems. The findings emphasize the importance of continued research and modeling efforts to better understand and adapt to these changes.The Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale atmosphere-ocean model was developed to accurately assess climate hazards under historical and far-future conditions. The study analyzes the impact of climate change on projected trends, variability, and extreme events in the Adriatic region under RCP 8.5 scenarios (2070–2100). In the atmosphere, results align with existing literature, showing strong land-sea contrasts, increased droughts and extreme rainfall, and decreased wind speeds in coastal areas. In the ocean, surface and intermediate temperatures rise, with salinity decreasing except in summer coastal areas. Bottom temperatures and salinity show strong contrasts, with bottom temperature trends rising slower than surface. Ocean currents accelerate in surface and intermediate layers but decelerate at the bottom. These results suggest reduced dense water formation in the northern Adriatic, intensified and shrinking southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre, and strengthened vertical stratification in the deepest part of the Adriatic, likely linked to changes in Adriatic-Ionian water mass exchanges. The study highlights the need for increased kilometer-scale modeling efforts in the Adriatic region to better implement policies and adaptation plans tailored to local climate changes. The AdriSC model, with 3 km atmospheric and 1 km oceanic resolution, was implemented to better represent Adriatic coastal dynamics. Two 31-year simulations were performed: a historical run (1987–2017) and an extreme warming run (2070–2100). The study compares these results with those from the EURO- and Med-CORDEX RCMs. The AdriSC model shows stronger performance in capturing fine-scale dynamics in both atmosphere and ocean under historical conditions. The far-future projections indicate significant warming, with temperature trends up to 0.5°C per decade, increased extreme heat events, and changes in precipitation patterns. The model also shows reduced dense water formation in the northern Adriatic, increased salinity in the southern Adriatic, and changes in ocean currents. The study highlights the need for further research to understand the implications of these changes for the Adriatic region's climate and ecosystems. The AdriSC model's results are compared with previous studies, showing similarities and differences in trends and variability. The study concludes that the Adriatic region is experiencing significant climate changes, including increased extreme weather events, changes in precipitation patterns, and impacts on marine life and ecosystems. The findings emphasize the importance of continued research and modeling efforts to better understand and adapt to these changes.
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